UFC on FUEL TV 10 Picks: Raphael Assuncao (-320) vs. Vaughan Lee (+240)

UFC-FUEL-10 UFC on FUEL TV 10 Ginasio Paulo Sarasate Saturday, June 8, 2013 Bantamweight bout: Raphael Assuncao (-320) vs. Vaughan Lee (+240) Fight Breakdown: Raphael Assuncao looks to make it four-in-a-row in the UFC bantamweight division when he takes on Vaughan Lee in a featured preliminary card bout at UFC on FUEL TV 10. Assuncao is currently a -320 favorite (bet $320 to win $100), while the comeback on Lee is +240 (bet $100 to win $240) at Several Bookmakers. Assuncao (18-4) was a solid 145er but since dropping down to 135 he’s taken on Johnny Eduardo, Issei Tamura and Mike Easton with relative ease and looks like a legit contender at the weight. The 30-year-old Brazilian has been around for a long time and has fought tons of talented fighters and there’s really nothing Lee brings to the table that he hasn’t seen before. As long as Assuncao doesn’t take his opponent lightly, he should be able to beat Lee in the standup and he should be able to outwork him on the ground as long as he’s careful not to get submitted. Lee (13-8-1) is 2-2 in the UFC with wins over Yorifumi “KID” Yamamoto and Motonobu Tezuka. The 30-year-old Englishman is very slick on the ground and has some power to boot but he’s lost many times in his career and going up against a stud like Assuncao, it’s hard to see him winning. This fight screamed mismatch as soon as it was announced and unless Assuncao makes a mistake and Lee capitalizes on it, it’s hard to envision a way that Lee wins this fight. Fight Prediction: I just see Raphael Assuncao as being too big and too skilled for Vaughan Lee to handle. Lee has definitely been a surprise in the UFC but I think his magical little run ends here as Assuncao beats him in every area of the game to pick up a decision, probably with a clean-sweep 30-27 scorecard on all three judges’ tallies. Adam’s Pick: Assuncao via decision (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: He’s -320, but I still like Assuncao for parlay fodder. I just really don’t see how Lee wins this fight and I cap Assuncao at over -400, so, there’s a bit of value on him here and therefore I recommend a bet on him as part of a two- or three-team parlay.

Written by Adam Martin.

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