Main Card Plays for UFC Fight Night 101 in Melbourne

alex-volkanovskiUFC Fight Night 101: Whittaker vs Brunson Date: November 26, 2016 Arena: Rod Laver Arena City: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Melbourne, Victoria, Australia for the second time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 101: Whittaker vs Brunson. The event will be featuring a 13-fight card that is set to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30pm, and prelims will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm, which will culminate into the main card on the same channel at 10pm. If interested in wagering on this parlay, or any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines are currently made available at Several Bookmakers. Here are my plays: Lightweight bout: Yusuke Kasuya (+160) vs Alex Volkanovski (-170) Gabe’s Thoughts: Kasuya is coming off a unanimous decision loss to the German Nick Hein in what was the Japanese fighters promotional debut. He will look to pick up his first UFC victory by taking on promotional newcomer Volkanovski. The Australian rides a solid 10-fight winning streak heading into his Octagon debut and will be looking to extend that to seven. I think Volkanovski is the superior fighter of the two, and despite being at a size disadvantage against Kasuya, I think he should be a 2-to-1 betting favorite heading into this lightweight contest, so I like him for a small play at his current offering price of -170. Gabe’s Call: Volkanovski by T/KO (punches, 4:53 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Volkanovski (-170) 1.95u to win 1.15u Light Heavyweight bout: Khalil Rountree (-135) vs Tyson Pedro (+125) Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a match-up between two finishers and popular opinion is that it is going to end inside of the first round, with the results being either Rountree by T/KO or Pedro by submission. I could see either of those potential results playing out in reality, however I am personally favorite this fight to go past the opening stanza, and potentially to the judges’ scorecards for a decision. After getting caught and submitted on his TUF 23 run, Rountree was able to go the distance against Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt Andrew Sanchez, though he was outgrappled for a one-sided three round affair that evening when they competed in the tournament finale, where he had seized an opportunity due to an injured fighter on the show and got another chance to win the tournament. He won his bout when re-entering the tournament and got to face Sanchez in the finale, where he took a was outgrappled for 15 minutes. Pedro is the hometown underdog heading into his UFC debut and will be looking to impress. While Rountree is a heavy hitter and a legit finisher, I think Pedro can avoid trouble, or survive it should he get caught up in any. I expect Pedro to try to turn this into a grappling contest sooner or later, and I could see him pulling off the submission, but if Sanchez was unable to, I think Pedro may have trouble putting him away, too. I’m not really confident backing either fighter in this contest, but I do think Pedro holds some betting value at his current underdog price of +125. That said, my play for this bout is going to be the Total of Over 1.5 rounds at -112, as the more I look into it, the more I like the chances of this fight going past seven and a half minutes and potentially to the judges’ scorecards for a decision. I expect both fighters to be game and I don’t think either of them will be easy to put away. I’m sure contrary to popular opinion, I think the Total of Over 1.5 rounds should be favored at 2-to-1, so I see a good amount of value in it at the current price. Gabe’s Call: Pedro by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommeded Play: Over 1.5 rounds (-112) 2.24u to win 2u

Written by Gabe Killian

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