Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN+ 28 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:


GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %



Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts


This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Brazil. DraftKings has some great contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP was a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $125,000 being paid out and they added another for a $20 entry with $200k total and $50k paid to first. Plenty of other great contests available as well with no other sports being played. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $50k. I will probably throw a handful of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups. 


With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:


Cash Game play of the week – Amanda Ribas – $9,300

Ribas is tied for the highest betting line on the card with Moicano and I think she has the highest floor. I don’t see her getting finished in this matchup, so I think she has 3 rounds to work with and should score 30+ even in a loss. Moicano is coming off back to back knockout losses so I don’t see him having that kind of floor because he could be KO’d in round 1 where I would be surprised if that happened to Ribas. I do like Ribas in this matchup as well and I think she gets the win against Markos. I don’t know that she has the highest ceiling on the card so we can get away in GPPs but I think she is the “safest” cash game play on the board and I like her to get 80+ in a win. 


GPP play of the week – Johnny Walker $8,600

If Johnny Walker wins, it is likely with a knockout and probably early in the fight. If that happens in round 1 he will have a great shot of being on the optimal lineup at his $8.6k price tag. I don’t see this fight going to decision, so I do like both sides, I just think it’s likely KO or bust for Walker here and if he does get it then he will score well. If you like Krylov to get the win then I think he should be a lock in your top GPP lineup and I think he is a very live dog here, I am just chasing the possible KO points from Walker and I will have more of him this week. 


Underdog play of the week – Brandon Moreno – $7,400

I will probably be Moreno or pass on this fight. I know Formiga can get a submission here, but I don’t see him getting enough takedowns to pay off his price if he doesn’t get that sub. There is also some line value on Moreno at his price here, so he is a guy that I probably look to get in 30% or more of my lineups this week. I don’t see him having a big ceiling either unless he gets a KO, but he is one of the more live dogs on the card and he is only $7.4k on DK. I think he will be one of the most popular dogs in cash this week and he would be a dog I look to get into my cash lineup. I think we can fade this fight altogether in GPPs if we want because of his high ownership but I don’t think I can pass on that value myself. 


Fade of the week – Veronica Macedo $9,100

At $9.1k, Macedo is probably priced out of my lineups. She could get a 1st round sub and ruin my night but that is probably going to be the risk I take. Maybe she makes 1 lineup of mine but with 10 or less she would be an easy fade for me. I don’t see her dominating this fight in any way and she will be at a 10-inch reach disadvantage on the feet. If she doesn’t get a round 1 finish, then I don’t think she will pay off her salary and that is why she is my fade of the week. 

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 117-88 for +246.36u (+$24,636) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays) 

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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