Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN+ 25 Breakdown
If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
|Significant Strikes||+0.5 Pts|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in New Mexico. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150,000 being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $30k. I will probably throw a handful of lineups, 10-20, in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Merab Dvalishvili – $8,400
Merab is my preferred play because of his high pace, high takedown volume, and Kenney’s below average takedown defense. I think Merab could score over 100 in a decision win here and I like him in all formats. I do think this is a tough fight for him though and Kenney is going to win more striking exchanges and is more likely to get a KO. Kenney has been taken down 10 times in his 2 UFC fights though and Merab averages 6.75 takedowns per 15 minutes. I expect him to be one of the most popular plays of the week, but he is a great blocker for cash games since most people will likely have him and I like him to get the win here.
GPP play of the week – Michel Pereira $8,500
If Pereira wins this fight it is likely going to be a KO and probably an early one. If he gets a 1st round KO, then that will be over 100 DK points and that would surely put him on the optimal lineup at $8.5k. He is a boom/bust play though because of his style and gas tank, if he doesn’t get the early win then he has a decent chance of losing so that is why he is a GPP play and not a cash game play.
Underdog play of the week – Rogerio Bontorin – $7,900
Bontorin is my favorite underdog on the card because I think he is the most live underdog who also has a high ceiling in this fight. There should be a lot of grappling in this fight and Bontorin could have some success there himself, but the striking exchanges are where I really see Bontorin winning the exchanges and I think if he wins this fight he likely scores more than 10x his salary.
Fade of the week – John Dodson $7,600
John Dodson is my fade of the week because he isn’t a volume guy and he hasn’t finished anybody in 4 years. I don’t think he has the power he used to, and he is on the down side of his career at 35 years of age. I think he could win a close split decision here, but he won’t score highly if that is the case, so I think the only way he ends up on the $30k lineup is if he gets a KO here. Wood is hittable, but I will take my changes that he doesn’t get it and Dodson won’t make any of my lineups this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 110-83 for +249.96u (+$24,996) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)