UFC on ESPN 5 takes place Saturday, August 3 at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The offshore sportsbooks recently opened up the betting odds for the full card, and here they are.
UFC on ESPN 5 Opening Odds
Colby Covington -175
Robbie Lawler +135
Jim Miller -185
Clay Guida +145
Nasrat Haqparast -230
Joaquim Silva +170
Trevin Giles -125
Gerald Meerschaert -115
Scott Holtzman -285
Dong Hyun Ma +205
Darko Stosic -130
Kennedy Nzechukwu -110
Hannah Goldy -130
Miranda Granger -110
Mickey Gall -190
Salim Touahri +150
Antonina Shevchenko -230
Lucia Pudilova +170
Jordan Espinosa -120
Matt Schnell -120
Claudia Silva -400
Cole Williams +280
Mara Romero Borella -190
Lauren Murphy +150
And here are my initial thoughts on the UFC on ESPN 5 Opening Odds:
- The main event between Covington and Lawler should be a tremendous bout featuring two of the best welterweights in the world. Covington is 9-1 overall in the UFC and has won six straight fights. He has not fought since a decision win over Rafael dos Anjos in June 2018, so he will be coming into this fight after a very long layoff. Lawler is a future UFC Hall of Famer but he has fallen on hard times as of late as he’s lost three of his last four fights. After being dominated by dos Anjos in late 2017, he returned and lost via controversial submission to Ben Askren earlier this year. Stylistically this is an intriguing fight between the grappler Covington and the striker Lawler. Covington’s wrestling skills have got the job done in almost every one of his fights to date, but Lawler is a different animal and has a huge advantage in the striking. Still, with Covington’s age advantage and the long win streak he’s on, he deserved to open as the betting favorite.
- The co-main event features veteran lightweights Miller and Guida going at it. Both guys are in their late 30s and have seen better days in their careers, but credit to both men as they are actually coming into this fight off of a win. Miller has actually won two of his last three fights but that came after a four-fight losing skid that almost cost him his UFC career. Guida, meanwhile, has won three of his last four fights and just beat BJ Penn by decision. I expected the odds for this fight to be closer to a Pick ’em, so at plus money there could be some value here in the dog Guida.
- Also on the main card is an intriguing women’s flyweight bout between undefeated prospects Goldy and Granger, who are both making their UFC debuts. Goldy is a perfect 5-0 so far in MMA while Granger is 6-0. Both women are very talented fighters and should be welcome additions to a division in need of new talent. Just remember this fight was booked on just two weeks’ notice, so neither fighter had much of a training camp for this one.
- Down on the prelims a fight that stands out is a men’s flyweight bout between Espinosa and Schnell. Espinosa is riding a five-fight win streak right now while Schnell has won three straight fights himself. It seems like the men’s flyweight division is making a comeback, and the winner of this fight could be closing in on a title shot in a shallow division.
- And finally, Silva returns to take on the UFC newcomer Williams, who is filling in for the injured Ramazan Emeev on short notice. Credit to Williams for taking this fight on super short notice, but this is a terrible matchup for him against one of the most underrated welterweights in the sport in Silva. There’s a reason why Silva is the biggest betting favorite on this card. It’s a great matchup for him stylistically and he should be able to get a finish.
