If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card in Vegas, and we are in the small cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Victor Henry $9,300
There is no clear cash game lock this week, but Henry is my favorite pay up option. I feel good about him winning and he has a solid -400 betting line. He has also never been finished so I feel like he has a safer floor than some of these other unproven high-priced fighters. I would worry about his ceiling more than those other fighters, but we can use them in GPPs and play it safer in our cash lineup and use Victor Henry. He should be able to put up a pace that Assuncao can’t keep up with and he can win a clear decision or get a TKO along the way.
GPP fight of the week – Dusko Todorovic $8,700 vs Jordan Wright $7,500
This is close to an all-in GPP fight for me with its -800 FDNGTD line. Wright is a kill or be killed fighter and Fight Ends in Round 1 is lined at -135 because of his fighting style. Both guys have bad defense and dangerous offense, which should lead to a KO. I prefer Todorovic because he is the better fighter and the guy I am picking to win. Wright has one of the highest ceilings as an underdog though, so he is a great GPP play as well. Load up on both sides of this fight in GPPs and hope to hit the winning combination. Don’t touch either side in your cash lineup though because their floors are too low.
Underdog play of the week – Cub Swanson $7,400
Swanson is going to be an underdog I look to in all formats because he is the only underdog I am picking to win. He does usually score well when he wins, and he can be a volume machine at times. I would expect around 10x from him if he gets his hand raised and I am fine matching the field or going overweight to him. I expect the majority of this fight to stay on the feet and if it goes all 15-minutes then neither guy will have 100-point upside. Swanson is $1.4k cheaper though so I like him in all formats and his opponent will be my fade of the week.
Fade of the week – Jonathan Martinez $8,800
Martinez is my fade of the week because he only averages 0.54 landed takedowns per 15-minutes and if he doesn’t get a KO then he doesn’t have a ceiling that we will need when we are paying $8.8k. His only good score was 115 against a washed Frankie Saenz and it took him 3 knockdowns to get there. His other wins are closer to 60 DK points and that is more what I would expect if he wins here. I will be X’ing Martinez out of my player pool and looking to get leverage on the fighters priced around him.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 223-211 for +239.80u (+$23,980) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)