If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Vegas, and we are in the small cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Sodiq Yusuff $9,500
Yusuff is an easy cash game lock with his -1200 betting line. He is by far the biggest favorite on the slate, and it should be a pretty easy win for him. He is a solid GPP play too with a -165 ITD line. He will be around 50% owned though so we can get away from him in GPPs if we don’t think he gets the finish. Even if he doesn’t hit 10x, that is fine for cash games, but it probably won’t win a tournament at $9.5k. He isn’t a guy that will look to wrestle and if anyone does in this matchup then it should be Shainis. We need the early finish from Yusuff for him to make the optimal, so I am fine going over or under on him based on if you think he gets it or not. Yusuff is the first fighter in my cash game lineup this week though.
GPP fight of the week – Randy Costa $9,200 vs Guido Cannetti $7,000
I love this curtain jerker because Costa is a kill or be killed fighter and that should lead to a high score for the winner. FDNGTD is lined at -500 and the winner has a good chance at the optimal lineup no matter which guy it is. Costa is my preferred play, and he is -110 to win in round 1. He is live for the slate-breaking 60 second finish and he scored 119 and 127 in his 2 UFC wins. Those are in play here and as long as he doesn’t look to change his style this matchup, I would expect over 100 in a win. If he does gas out after round 1 then Cannetti has a good chance to come back and put up a good score himself. Costa will have the ownership, but Cannetti does probably go overlooked. I am fine going overweight to both guys and just loading up on this first fight hoping that the winner is on the $100k lineup. I would want this in ¾ or more of my GPP lineups.
Underdog play of the week – Aleksei Oleinik $7,500
Oleinik is my underdog play of the week because he has a high ceiling with his submission potential. He has scored over 90 DK points in all his wins on his fight log and if he can get another win here then I’d expect the same. Oleinik is 45 years old now and that isn’t something I like to lay my money on. However, this is dog or pass for me. Latifi is almost 40 himself and he just doesn’t do enough for me to agree with this line. He landed 15 significant strikes in his last 30 minutes of Octagon time, and he won his last fight because he laid on his opponent for a round and a half. That is not something you want to do against Oleinik. Oleinik can submit him from the top or bottom and he is also the higher volume striker. Give me the old man to get one more UFC win.
Fade of the week – Randy Brown $9,300
This is a fight that I will look to avoid and hope that it goes overowned because it is the co-main event. Brown is my pick to win, and I am fine with him in cash games because I think he is a “safe” play to get the win. I just don’t see him having the ceiling of the people around him because Trinaldo has never been knocked out and Brown has never landed multiple takedowns in a fight. I don’t think he scores 100+ in a decision here and I would expect closer to the 70’s where he scored in his last two decision wins. I will take a shot and make Brown my fade of the week and hope this fight goes the distance.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 222-211 for +234.20u (+$23,420) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)