If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Vegas, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $200k goes to 1st place with $750,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Khamzat Chimaev $9,600
Chimaev is my cash game play of the week with his -520 betting line. He has scored 101, 117, 127, 122, and 124 in his 5 UFC wins and he can probably score more than all of those if he dominates in a wrestling-heavy decision. Vettori took Holland down 11 times so I am sure Chimaev can do the same and possibly finish within 25 minutes.
GPP fight of the week – Ion Cutelaba $8,600 vs Johnny Walker $7,600
This is one of the best GPP fights on the card with its -450 FDNGTD line. Johnny Walker has slate-breaking KO upside, and he has never scored under 100 DK points in a win. When he wins, he knocks people out early and he is in play for that again in this spot. I do want to get leverage on Walker if I can, but my preferred play is going to be Cutelaba. He has early KO upside as well, but he can score well in a decision by racking up takedowns, where Walker doesn’t have much of a ceiling if he did win a decision. Cutelaba has scored over 100 in most of his wins as well and he even scored 89 in a draw a couple of fights ago. I expect the winner of this fight to score around 100 or more and at their prices, that should put them on the optimal lineup. I want this fight in most of the GPP lineups I create but I would look for safer plays in a cash game lineup.
Underdog play of the week – Macy Chiasson $7,400
Chiasson is my underdog play of the week because she can score 30-40+ in a loss which is solid for cash games, and she scores well in wins which is great for GPPs. She has never won with a score that would disappoint at $7.4k but she has 5 wins with over 100 DK points, including her last win which was a decision. If she wins this fight, she should score well, and she can compete for the optimal lineup if she is able to score near 100.
Fade of the week – Melissa Martinez $8,500 vs Elise Reed $7,700
I am going to X this fight out of my player pool. Reed would be my preferred play of the two because she is cheaper, and I am picking her to win. I don’t see much of a ceiling for her though, so I like her more for cash games and I just have zero interest in this fight for GPPs. They will be low owned so if you want to take a shot on either of them for that reason and hope something crazy happens then that is fine in a large field GPP.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 221-208 for +237.50u (+$23,750) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)