Big Marley’s UFC 278 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Utah, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $200k goes to 1st place with $800,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Amir Albazi $9,200

This is Albazi or pass for me. I don’t love him in GPPs, but I do think he is one of the “safest” plays on the slate. Albazi could finish this fight in any round with a knockout or a submission. I could also see Albazi landing around his 4 sig strikes per minute and landing a few takedowns in this fight and controlling the fight on the mat. I don’t expect him to get as much ownership as the fighters priced around him, so I think he is in play as a GPP pivot away from the chalkier fighters, and I also like him in cash games because he is a pretty safe play with his -500 betting line.

GPP fight of the week – Tyson Pedro $9,500 vs Harry Hunsucker $6,700

This is a great GPP fight with a crazy -1400 FDNGTD line. The only thing that is making it not an all-in fight is that Pedro is the highest-priced guy on the card, and we have other big ceilings as well. Pedro ITD is -550 and he is -225 to win in round 1, so I like all the Pedro that I can afford. Hunsucker has never been out of round 1 and that’s probably what happens again here. If Hunsucker wins in round 1 then he will be on the optimal lineup and we will only be competing with less than 10% of the field, with half of the field having dead Pedro lineups, so I do want GPP exposure there as well.

Underdog play of the week – Daniel Da Silva $7,600

This is a hard fight to predict how it plays out, but it is one I want to target because Da Silva is a kill or be killed fighter. All 11 of his wins are ITD and he was finished in all 3 losses. He has never even been to the 3rd round and this fight has a -190 Under 2.5 rounds line. Altamirano fought at a high pace for a full 3 rounds on the DWCS. He landed 100 sig strikes, 178 total strikes, and landed 4 takedowns. Either guy can score well in a win and that is what I want to target rather than just one side of the fight. Silva has the early edge for me because he is more dangerous, and if he wins it should be early and he would score well. He is one of few dogs on the card that I am picking to win, so that is why he is my underdog play of the week, but I would mix in both guys from this curtain jerker.

Fade of the week – Sean Woodson $8,800

I don’t love this fight on DraftKings, and Woodson is one of my least favorite favorites on the card. We have a -125 FDTD line and I don’t expect either guy to score well in a decision. Woodson can strike at a high pace, but he doesn’t wrestle, and he only scored 82 and 61 in his two UFC decision wins. I would rather target the other heavy favorites on this card so that might make Woodson a fade for me. I won’t X him out of my 150 lineup player pool, but I won’t be clicking his name with my hand builds and that is why he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 218-206 for +236.40u (+$23,640) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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