Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 59 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

mma, ufc, ufc on ESPN, marley, draft kings, fantasy, preview, breakdown, betting

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Vegas, and we are in the small cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $500,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Terrance McKinney $9,500

McKinney might be a lock button play for me this week. He is a lock for cash games with his huge -1000 betting line, but he is also the best GPP play on the slate with his -400 ITD line and even better, his -200 wins in round 1 line. He is a very fast starter, and he has good striking and wrestling early. He had 127 in his debut with the quick bonus knockout, and he scored 97 in his 2nd fight with an early submission. He even had 40 DK points in his 1st round loss in his last fight. I expect him to dominate in round 1 and get the finish, and he should score over 100 DK points.

GPP fight of the week – Josh Quinlan $8,600 vs Jason Witt $7,600

This is one of the best GPP fights on the card and both guys are in play. We have a -200 FDNGTD line and Quinlan has a -125 ITD line himself. Witt has a bad chin, and he probably does get caught at some point in this fight. Witt has been knocked out in the first minute of the fight twice already and that is a slate breaking bonus is Quinlan can do that. If Witt can win this fight, it should be very grappling heavy, and he has 100+ upside even in a decision win. Either way, I want to load up on this fight, but I do think Quinlan gets the knockout.

Underdog play of the week – Mohammed Usman $7,300

Both sides of this fight are in play for GPPs, but Usman is my preferred play. If Usman wins, I expect him to score well. He has big power and can get an early KO to break the slate. He can also wrestle and control the fight which should score over 10x. Usman will be one of my top underdog options just for his ceiling. He is the much slower striker and I would worry about his cardio if this fight gets extended, so this is a GPP only underdog play for me and I would look elsewhere in cash games.

Fade of the week – Brogan Walker $7,900

This might be a full fade fight for me. Miller is my preferred play because her grappling and submission upside is the only way I see a chance at 100 from either side. Miller does fight at a decently high pace as well. That could help Walker in a win but I would rather target higher upside fighters so I will just X her out of my pool. Walker should just be looking to strike, and I don’t see the upside in her with a -325 Fight Goes To Decision betting line. That is why she is my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 215-205 for +234.76u (+$23,476) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.


UFC Vegas 59 Fight Breakdown: Jamahal Hill vs. Thiago Santos

Uber Tales of the Tape for UFC Vegas 59