If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 14-fight card in London, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $500,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Nathaniel Wood $9,400
This is Wood or pass for me, but he is $9.4k and he only has a +200 ITD line so we can get away from this fight in GPPs. Wood could dominate and still score under 10x in a decision win here. He is my most confident pick on the card though so I like him for cash games, and I would be ok going him over Mokaev in cash where we don’t care about the ceiling as much. I am also totally ok with the main event stack as the cash game play of the week but Wood feels like a “safe” pick and that is what I like in cash games.
GPP fight of the week – Jonathan Pearce $8,700 vs Makwan Amirkhani $7,500
I love this fight for GPPs, and it is close to an all-in fight. If Amirkhani wins then he probably scores over 95 points because I would expect a 1st round submission. He is one of the better boom/bust underdog plays on the slate for that reason, but GPP only. Pearce can finish this fight in any round, and I would expect him to be able to dominate the last half of the fight. If Amirkhani does slow down, then I don’t see him making it to the final bell. I want this fight in ¾ of my GPP lineups and Pearce is my preferred play of the two.
Underdog play of the week – Paul Craig $7,700
This is another great GPP fight to target with a -360 FDNGTD line. I wouldn’t expect to see either score well in a decision win, but I also don’t expect it to go to a decision. Volkan should score well with a KO and Craig should score well with a sub. That is what I am targeting. I will be overweight on the Craig side though and he is one of my top underdog plays because I am picking him to get a 1st round submission.
Fade of the week – Nicolas Dalby $8,800
Dalby is a full fade for me this week because he is priced too high, and I would rather pay up for basically anybody else in his range. The only way I see him making the optimal lineup would be a 1st round TKO and I will take my chances on that not happening. He isn’t a high-volume striker, and he shouldn’t be looking to take Silva down because Silva is the better grappler. Even if Dalby does get a 1st round finish, then he still might not make the optimal lineup because this week is stacked in the top range, and I will be X’ing him out of my player pool.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 212-204 for +230.93u (+$23,093) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)