If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Singapore, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $150k goes to 1st place with $700,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Valentina Shevchenko $9,600
Valentina is a lock for cash games as the biggest favorite on the card at -720 but $9.6k is priced out of the optimal lineup the majority of the time and she will be highly owned. I like a lot of dogs on this card so I will still be fairly heavy on Valentina, but we can get away from this fight in GPPs and hope she doesn’t score over 100 DK points. She does have the highest ceiling on the card though and she could dominate every round so I probably get her in about half my lineups. We don’t care about her ceiling or ownership in cash games though and we want to play safer in those lineups. Valentina is safe with upside so that is the first spot if building a cash lineup this week.
GPP fight of the week – Jiri Prochazka $8,900 vs Glover Teixeira $7,300
This is a fight I want in 100% of my GPP lineups. The stack or fade is fine in cash games but they both have low floors so the solo in cash would be a worry. I see this fight going under 1.5 rounds (+100) and it should be a Jiri KO or Glover sub. Either score should end up on the optimal lineup, so I am all in. Jiri is my preferred play and he is likely going to be my highest owned fighter. I could see me going 70-75% Jiri here and the rest would be on Glover. If you are picking Glover, then he should be your highest owned fighter because there is no way he won’t score highly in a win, and he should be a lock for the optimal if he gets it. Jiri could spend the 1st round on his back and then get a KO in the 2nd and maybe miss the lineup that way but I see 100+ from whoever gets their hand raised.
Underdog play of the week – Joanna Jedrzejczyk $7,400
This is a rematch from my favorite fight of all time. These two went to war for 25-minutes and Zhang won a super close split decision after going 1 for 8 on takedowns and getting outlanded 196 to 170 in total strikes. Now she is lined between 62-65% across different sports books. I am fine with either of these fighters getting the win in that last fight but I still don’t have any interest in holding a ticket with my bet on the person that is implied to win 65% of the time and we have no clue who is going to get their hand raised. This fight is only 3-rounds so we could even see Zhang win and not score 10x. If JJ gets her hand raised in this match, I would think she is scoring 10x and she has close to 100-point upside with her high pace. I don’t expect the same crazy war we saw in the first fight but $7.4k is too cheap and I like JJ in all formats.
Fade of the week – SeungWoo Choi $9,100
This fight is mostly a fade for me because I don’t expect a high-paced striking match. I also don’t see many takedowns from either guy. The ceiling for both of them is an early knockout and I will just take my chances and hope that doesn’t happen. Choi really needs a 1st round KO at his price tag but he could get there with a 2nd rounder as well.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 205-193 for +235.86u (+$23,586) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)