Big Marley’s UFC Columbus Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:

Scoring

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Ohio, and we are back in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Aliaskhab Khizriev – $9,300

Khizriev will be one of my favorite plays in all formats and I think he is a decent lock button play if playing 20 or less lineups. I think he could get a KO on the feet, but I expect him to look for takedowns early and finish on the ground. He is -360 ITD and -125 to win in round 1. He is a core play for me, but he will be very heavily owned as well. If you want to get away from him for ownership purposes then I think that is fine, but I would rather go all in rather than underweight personally. He is a lock for a cash game lineup as the biggest favorite on the card at -1000 on some books.

GPP fight of the week – Viacheslav Borshchev $8,700 vs Marc Diakiese $7,500

This is a fight I want to target both sides of and it has a -200 FDNGTD line. If Borshcev wins then it will come from striking, but we will need a knockout for him to make the optimal lineup. He has a +120 ITD line so I do want some exposure to him, but I probably go in line with the field, and I’d rather go under than over. Diakiese is going to be one of my favorite underdogs on the card because I think he could get a KO of his own, but I expect him to land multiple takedowns and win this fight mainly through the ground. If this fight goes the distance, then he is the only one who has a chance at a big score over 10x. I like him in all formats but more so in GPPs and I will be overweight to the field.

Underdog play of the week – Joanne Wood – $7,200

Wood is my underdog play of the week because even in a loss I think she would score over 40 DK points. She is a live dog in this matchup, and I expect a close striking match with high volume from both sides. Wood does land more on average and she has never scored less than 89 DK points in a win. She averages 114 DK points in her wins, and I just don’t see her getting a win that doesn’t score more than 10x here.

Fade of the week – Bruno Souza – $7,900

Souza has shifted to the slight betting favorite at -120 and with him priced as the underdog I am sure that will raise his ownership and I have no interest in getting leverage to him. He won’t be high-paced or looking for takedowns, so I don’t see a big score coming from him if he does win. He only has a +400 ITD line so I think we should be targeting other underdogs with higher ceilings which makes Souza a full fade for me.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 194-181 for +231.13u (+$23,113) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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