Big Marley’s UFC Columbus Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Ohio, and we are back in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Aliaskhab Khizriev – $9,300

Khizriev will be one of my favorite plays in all formats and I think he is a decent lock button play if playing 20 or less lineups. I think he could get a KO on the feet, but I expect him to look for takedowns early and finish on the ground. He is -360 ITD and -125 to win in round 1. He is a core play for me, but he will be very heavily owned as well. If you want to get away from him for ownership purposes then I think that is fine, but I would rather go all in rather than underweight personally. He is a lock for a cash game lineup as the biggest favorite on the card at -1000 on some books.

GPP fight of the week – Viacheslav Borshchev $8,700 vs Marc Diakiese $7,500

This is a fight I want to target both sides of and it has a -200 FDNGTD line. If Borshcev wins then it will come from striking, but we will need a knockout for him to make the optimal lineup. He has a +120 ITD line so I do want some exposure to him, but I probably go in line with the field, and I’d rather go under than over. Diakiese is going to be one of my favorite underdogs on the card because I think he could get a KO of his own, but I expect him to land multiple takedowns and win this fight mainly through the ground. If this fight goes the distance, then he is the only one who has a chance at a big score over 10x. I like him in all formats but more so in GPPs and I will be overweight to the field.

Underdog play of the week – Joanne Wood – $7,200

Wood is my underdog play of the week because even in a loss I think she would score over 40 DK points. She is a live dog in this matchup, and I expect a close striking match with high volume from both sides. Wood does land more on average and she has never scored less than 89 DK points in a win. She averages 114 DK points in her wins, and I just don’t see her getting a win that doesn’t score more than 10x here.

Fade of the week – Bruno Souza – $7,900

Souza has shifted to the slight betting favorite at -120 and with him priced as the underdog I am sure that will raise his ownership and I have no interest in getting leverage to him. He won’t be high-paced or looking for takedowns, so I don’t see a big score coming from him if he does win. He only has a +400 ITD line so I think we should be targeting other underdogs with higher ceilings which makes Souza a full fade for me.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 194-181 for +231.13u (+$23,113) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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