If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back in the Apex with the small cage. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Islam Makhachev – $9,500
Islam is my favorite play on the slate, and he is a lock in cash games with a crazy -1125 betting line. I am not against locking him in 150 lineups either with only 11 fights on the card. I think he should be a lock for 100-points with a win in this fight and he has the highest ceiling on the card with 5-rounds to work with. He will be the highest owned fighter on the slate, but I probably still find a way to go overweight. I wouldn’t even stack this fight in cash games, and I would just take Islam solo. I don’t expect the overall fight to be high-scoring, I think it will mainly be one way traffic with Islam being the scorer.
GPP fight of the week – Gregory Rodrigues $8,500 vs Armen Petrosyan $7,700
This is one of the best GPP fights to target with a -450 FDNGTD line. Both sides can finish in any round, and this is a fight I would want in the majority of my GPP lineups and hopefully overweight to both sides. Rodrigues is my preferred play because I think he is better everywhere, and he has a solid +100 ITD line. He can finish on the feet or the ground, and he can score well in a grappling-based decision. He scored 120 DK points with a 2nd round KO in his last fight, and I think that could be in play again here with another finish. Petrosyan is in play for the knockout, and he could get it in any round. Rodrigues has a questionable chin and Petrosyan can test it with punches or kicks. I wouldn’t want to play this fight in cash games, but it is one I plan to load up on in GPPs.
Underdog play of the week – Rong Zhu – $7,200
Rong Zhu is my preferred play in this fight because he is cheap, he is more likely to hit 10x in a decision win, and he has a slate winning ceiling. He scored 146 DK points in his last fight, and I don’t think any other dogs on this card have that kind of ceiling. I don’t expect him to score near that in this matchup, but he is going to have to win this fight on that mat and that is what scores well. I expect him to be popular, but I still probably end up overweight personally and I think he is cash playable as well.
Fade of the week – Jonathan Martinez – $8,800
This fight will mostly be a fade for me with its -150 FGTD line but Martinez is going to be my fade of the week because of his price tag. I would rather find a way to pay up for the top 3 guys if I am spending that much and the only way Martinez has a shot at 100+ is with an early knockout. He is not a high-volume striker, and he has never landed more than 1 takedown in a UFC fight so I don’t even think he can even hit 10x without a finish. I probably X him out of my player pool so I can focus more on the favorites that I do like. He should be low owned, and Perez has been knocked down 5 times in his UFC career, so that is the reason to play him in GPPs if you are looking for one.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 187-180 for +221.93u (+$22,193) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)