If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses
|1st Round Win
|2nd Round Win
|3rd Round Win
|4th Round Win
|5th Round Win
|Quick Win Bonus
This weekend, we have a 10-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas to start 2022. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $333,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Brian Kelleher – $7,500
Kelleher is one of two “free squares” this week. He was an underdog in his last matchup and now he is the biggest favorite on the card against Croom. I do think he is an easy lock in cash games and also a fine lock button for GPPs if you do want leverage there. He will be super chalky though, so I am not against getting away from him for ownership purposes and hoping he doesn’t put up a high enough score for the optimal. I am also not against a very small percentage of Croom in deep GPPs because nobody will be on him, and he is live for a submission.
GPP fight of the week – Viacheslav “Slava” Borshchev $9,000 vs Dakota Bush $7,200
I think this is a great GPP fight, and we can target both sides. FDNGTD is lined at -200 and I think both guys have a decent chance at a finish. Slava can get a KO in any round, and he is a dangerous striker with a big striking edge here. Bush can get a submission in any round and if he is successful with takedowns then Slava won’t have much to offer on the mat. Slava is my preferred play of the two, but this is one of my favorite fights for GPPs and I am not against going with Bush if I am fading either or both free squares. GPP only for Bush though where I think Slava is a fine cash game play combined with the two cheap “free squares”.
Underdog play of the week – TJ Brown – $7,100
Brown is the other “free square” this week coming in as a -250 or so favorite which is the 2nd highest on the card, but he is the 4th cheapest on DraftKings. This is another lock in cash games and fine all in spot for GPPs, but to get different I think we can get away from TJ and even onto Rosa. Rosa is live for a submission in any round here and if he gets it early then he will be on the optimal lineup with a small amount of people to compete with. He will also knock off more than half of the lineups because they will have TJ. I could see TJ looking to keep this fight on the feet because of the submission potential and if he doesn’t get a KO then he probably doesn’t score great in a striking-based decision win. However, he could rack up 10 takedowns here and dominate in a decision if he can avoid getting tapped.
Fade of the week – Katlyn Chookagian – $8,900
At $8.9k, Chookagain is an easy fade for me. The only reason to use her would be because you are eating the free square chalk, and this is your way of getting different. Chookagian has 9 UFC wins but the only time she would have scored more than 10x this $8.9k price tag was against Antonina Shevchenko where she actually looked to wrestle, and Shev had no answer for it. I don’t see that being an option on this slate, so I think she is back to her ~80-point ceiling. I would rather target every other favorite on this card so I will be X’ing Chookagian out of my player pool.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 185-174 for +228.45u (+$22,845) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)