Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 45 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 14-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $300,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Raoni Barcelos – $9,300

I like Barcelos in all formats here and I probably X Henry out of my player pool. Barcelos scored 110 or more in all 3 of his wins by finish in the UFC and he scored 96 and 64 in his two decision wins. I would expect this fight to be pretty high paced and include a decent amount of grappling so I think he would be closer to the 96 if he does win a decision here but he can finish the fight on the feet or the mat. I want to be overweight to Barcelos here and he is close to a core play for me. If you think Henry is live, then go ahead and include him in some GPP lineups but I will take my shots elsewhere. I don’t think there are any cash game locks this week, but Barcelos would be my favorite option, so he is my cash game play of the week.

GPP play of the week – Chris Daukaus – $8,300

I like Daukaus in all formats and he is a core play for me. Lewis needs to get an early KO here to have any shot at 100 DK points and he needs a KO just to score over 10x because he is so low volume and doesn’t look to wrestle. Daukaus can get the KO in any round as well, he can look for takedowns and have success on the mat, and he can put up volume to where I don’t see him scoring less than 10x in a win. At $8.3k, I have a hard time seeing Daukaus not pay off this salary if he wins and since Lewis is the bigger name, we might see Daukaus lower owned that he should be, even for a main event favorite. I think this is a good GPP card and there were a couple choices I could put here but Daukaus is the only fighter I feel good about enough to make a core play so that is why he is my GPP play of the week.

Underdog play of the week – Darren Elkins – $7,400

I think Elkins has to wrestle to win this fight so if that game plan works then he will score over 10x, and he can score over 100 in a decision win if he is able to win all 3 rounds with his wrestling. He could get a submission in any round and score highly there as well. He just can’t be stuck on the feet here because Swanson is the better striker, and he loses that fight. If Elkins can have success with the wrestling, then he will be one of the more live dogs on the card and he can score well on DraftKings.

Fade of the week – Stephen Thompson – $9,100

Thompson ITD is +300 or higher right now and I don’t see him having the volume to score over 100 DK points. He won’t be looking for takedowns and I think Belal is tough enough to survive even if he can’t get his own takedowns. I have a hard time seeing Thompson be able to pay off this $9.1k salary with a decision win bonus and only striking stats to add to it. He has been throwing more volume lately but even when he landed 138 strikes against Luque and had a KD, he only scored 96 DK points and that might not cut it at this price. I think he will still get more ownership than he should because he is a big name, and this is a co-main event fight. He will be a fade for me though.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 184-171 for +229.42u (+$22,942) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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