If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Adrian Yanez – $9,100
There are no locks in cash games this week on the favorites end, but I am going with Yanez as my cash game play of the week. I think Yanez picks Davey Grant apart on the feet and gets a knockout at some point in this fight, so I like Yanez in all formats. I could see Yanez starting off slow and maybe being put on his back early and not really scoring until round 2 so that is a reason to not make him a core play, but I think he is a solid play in all formats and Vegas is giving him a 55% chance to get a finish.
GPP play of the week – Loopy Godinez – $8,800
This fight is Godinez or pass for me because she is the only one with a ceiling. Her ceiling would come from a wrestling heavy game plan or a submission win. That is her most optimal path to victory here, so I do expect that to be the game plan and I like her in all formats. I think she has a solid floor as well because I don’t see Loma getting a finish. I can see Loopy racking up multiple takedowns and controlling this fight on the ground for longer than it takes place on the feet and not even needing a finish for a 100-point score. The finish potential is there as well, and it could come early so that is why Loopy is my GPP play of the week.
Underdog play of the week – Rafa Garcia – $7,700
I think Garcia is a solid cash game play because he is currently the betting favorite at -125 and we get him priced at $7.7k as an underdog on DK. That should make him popular in GPPs, but I am still fine with being overweight on him because I think he is the better fighter here and he could have a lot of grappling success if he can avoid gassing out. I don’t have any real confidence in Garcia winning but the value we are getting with this salary makes him too good to pass up on so that is why he is my “underdog” of the week.
Fade of the week – Loma Lookboonmee – $7,400
There aren’t any favorites I really want to X out of my player pool this week. One person who I am ok X’ing out of my pool would be Lookboonmee. She should be looking to just strike in this matchup, and she will probably be spending a lot of time either on her back or fighting off takedowns, where she won’t be scoring. She won’t be looking for takedowns and I don’t see her getting a knockout. Even if she wins, I doubt we would see a 10x score. There are a couple underdogs I am fine getting 0% exposure and Loma is the first one I am kicking out of the player pool, so that is why she is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 184-169 for +231.42u (+$23,142) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)