Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 39 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 10-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Alexander Romanov – $9,200

If this was a striking only match, then Vanderaa would have a shot here. It’s not though and I think he gets mauled on the ground. Romanov is the closest thing to a lock button play on the card. I would lock him into cash games, but I am not against throwing him into all my 150 in the mini max either. He will be the chalk of the card so if you want to get different then you can fade for that reason since we only have 10 fights. I think he dominates and finishes on the ground though and scores 100+ maybe even 125+. I want as much of him as I can afford, and he is a core play for me. He has a -300 ITD line and he is even money to win in round 1. That is an easy cash game play, so this is where we start that cash game lineup this weekend.

GPP play of the week – Phil Hawes – $9,000 (The Hawes fight has been cancelled)

Hawes is my 2nd favorite guy to target behind Romanov. I expect them to both be very popular though so fading one of both in SE could end up being the move on a 10 fight card. I like this chalk though and I think Hawes can dominate this fight and finish it early. I like him in all formats, and I think he can get an early knockout in this fight and score over 100-points.

Underdog play of the week – Tim Elliott – $7,700

Elliott is my underdog play of the week because I think he would lock up 10x and also have 100-point potential if he is able to win. I would expect him to have success with his wrestling and top control time if that is the case and that will score well on DraftKings. He also fights at a high pace, so he has one of the higher underdog ceilings on the card. I will be limiting my Elliott exposure because I don’t have him winning this fight, but IF he does win, then I think he scores well.

Fade of the week – Chris Gutierrez – $9,200

Chris Gutierrez is my fade of the week because I think he has to get a finish to score over 100 DK points. I would rather target other favorites with a better chance of finishing or grappling. Gutierrez does not look to wrestle, and he is only +275 ITD. At $8.9k I don’t even feel comfortable with him getting 10x if he gets a decision win in this fight and I also think this fight could be closer than the line indicates. I will be X’ing Gutierrez out of my 150 player pool this week and hoping he doesn’t get an early finish to burn me.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 178-166 for +223.71u (+$22,371) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.


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