If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Significant Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Control Time | +0.03 Pts/Second |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
| Quick Win Bonus | +25 Pts |
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Karol Rosa – $9,300
Rosa would be a cash game lock for me on this card. I also want to be overweight to her in GPPs though because she is aggressive and fights at a high pace, plus I think she can get a TKO. She has scored 109, 110, and 112 in her 3 UFC wins and I would think if she can match that in this fight then she has a good chance to end up on the optimal lineup. I also think she is the “safest” win with the highest floor so that is why I would lock her into cash games. I think this is going to be a one way beating but this is the first spot I would plug into a cash lineup.
GPP play of the week – Aspen Ladd – $8,800
I think Ladd is better everywhere in this fight if she comes back the same from her injury and long layoff. She is a scorer as well and has scored 99, 88, 115, and 95 in her four UFC wins. I like those numbers and I think she can have a lot of success on the mat in this fight. I like her in all formats, but this is a good fight to target in GPPs and I could see it going a bit overlooked.
(Edit, Ladd has since been pulled from her fight after a bad weight cut)
Underdog play of the week – Johnny Walker – $7,400
This is a great GPP fight with its -480 FDNGTD line. There is a good chance this fight ends in a KO, and I think both guys have a good shot at the optimal no matter what round the KO comes. Both guys have big power and can end this fight in the 1st round. I wouldn’t trust either solo in cash games, but we can stack or fade there. I wouldn’t expect a crazy high-volume fight leading up to the KO, but I do think both guys have that 100+ upside and I want this in most of the GPP lineups I create. Walker is going to be my preferred play because I think he is more likely to land a big shot early and if he gets a 1st round KO then we can bet that he is in the $100k lineup. He is the taller and younger guy here and he has a 6-inch reach advantage. Give me him to get an upset knockout in this matchup.
Fade of the week – Douglas Silva de Andrade – $9,200
Andrade is a fade this week for me on DraftKings because I don’t see myself paying up for this price tag. I think he needs a KO or a lot of takedowns to pay it off and I would rather just get leverage on other favorites I like more. He isn’t a high paced striker, and he struggles to hold guys down when he does go for takedowns, so I don’t see a high score coming from him. I expect this to be a striking match for the most part and I am not as confident as the betting line is on him to win
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 178-165 for +224.71u (+$22,471) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
