Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN 30 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $500,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Makhmud Muradov – $9,300

I think you can make a case for any of the top 3 priced fighters on this card for cash games. All should get wins and should make it look pretty easy. I just think Muradov is the best of the bunch because he seems to be good everywhere and he has a high ceiling with his KO potential. He is the biggest favorite on the card, and he should have a huge advantage on the feet here and I think he has the takedown defense to keep it there. I think Petroski is just as good of a play but his striking looks bad and it wouldn’t shock me to see him get knocked out before he lands the takedown that he needs to dominate the fight.

GPP play of the week – Andre Petroski – $9,200

Petroski looks bad on the feet, doesn’t have good cardio, and is very low output while standing. However, he is my favorite GPP play on the card because once he gets the fight to the mat he should completely dominate and most likely finish. He has the highest ITD line on the card lined at -250 and he should make this look easy once it hits the ground. I expect a grappling heavy, early finish here and that is the ceiling I want to load up on in GPPs.

Underdog play of the week – Daniel Rodriguez – $7,700

I like both sides of this fight and I think they both have high upsides. Lee is a great wrestler and I think he can wrestle a lot of guys in this division. DRod is a high-volume striker, and he apparently has a solid ground game as well. He could get a KO or a submission in this fight and that will of course score well. I think his high output will put him over 10x in a decision win as well though and he is going to be one of my top underdogs to click on this week for that reason.

Fade of the week – Wellington Turman – $8,400

I don’t see Turman being able to have a lot of success on the ground in this fight and that is where he excels. Alvey is hard to get down and even harder to hold down, so I think this fight mainly plays out on the feet and the only way for Turman to score well there is going to be a KO. It is possible that he gets it but neither guy is high-volume, and I favor Alvey to be the one to land the big KO if there is one. I would rather target every other favorite on the card and that is why Turman is going to be a fade for me.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 174-161 for +223.67u (+$22,367) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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