Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 34 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:

Scoring

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $500,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Vinc Pichel – $8,200

There is no clear cash game favorite on this card. We don’t have any favorites lined above 2-1 and it is hard to feel like any pick is safe. I am going to go with Pichel as my cash game play though because I think he has a high floor and a high ceiling. Even if he loses, I could see him putting up ~50 or so points if he is able to have early grappling success. His wrestling is his big advantage in this fight though so he should be looking to get this fight to the mat early and often. Hubbard has been taken down 14 times in his UFC career and I could see Pichel having 100+ upside even in a decision win if he is able to rack up more than 1 takedown each round.

GPP play of the week – Mark Madsen – $9,100

Madsen is my preferred play here and I expect a wrestling heavy game plan from him. He could rack up 5-10 takedowns in this fight and I think he can finish early as well. His cardio is an issue and that is what puts Guida in play for me as well, I just won’t have much of him. Madsen is going to be the $9k option I click the most this weekend for GPPs because he should have a clear game plan every time he steps into the Octagon. Wrestle!

Underdog play of the week – Saidyokub Kakharamonov – $7,400

Kakharamonov is making his UFC debut on just a couple days’ notice. He is going to be Jones’ 4th opponent for this camp, so he has had a lot of looks to train for and he doesn’t get much time to adjust for this one. I do expect Kakharamonov to look pretty good early in this fight and I think he even takes the 1st round. He could maybe even finish early or if he is in shape, he can grind out this win. He has great line value at +124 and $1,400 cheaper than Jones. The late notice could scare people away from him too and he might not be very chalky even with the line value. This isn’t an underdog I will be making a core play or anything, but I think he makes sense in all formats.

Fade of the week – Austin Hubbard – $8,000

Hubbard is really the only guy on the card that I am not interested in rostering. He really needs an early KO to have any shot at 100+ points here and I will fade him in hopes that it doesn’t happen. He could win this fight by weathering an early storm and then winning the striking game to take rounds 2 and 3. I just don’t see how that scores well and I doubt he would even get 10x this price tag. That is why he is going to be my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 172-160 for +224.67u (+$22,267) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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