Big Marley’s UFC on ABC 2 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 14-fight card at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Marvin Vettori – $9,600

There is no easy cash game play of the week this week, so I think going with the main event is the safest option. Vettori is the biggest favorite on the card at -345 and if you want to play it safer you can throw Holland in as well and just stack the 5-round fight. We should see over 100 total points here and we don’t need 6 wins in cash games. The stack is my preferred play, but I am also not against solo Vettori. I think he has more ways to win this fight and he doesn’t even need a finish to score 100+. He is very expensive at $9.6k but I would rather fade him in a GPP than I would in cash games and using him in cash is a nice hedge if you are underweight in GPPs.

GPP play of the week – Yorgan de Castro – $9,400

De Castro is my GPP play of the week because of his -165 ITD line. Danho wasn’t UFC material 5 years ago when we saw him and now, he is 37 years old. I think Yorgan can get a KO in any round and I see him eating Danho’s legs up until he quits. That might even come in round 1. He hasn’t been around since leg kicks became popular and De Castro throws some mean ones. I like De Castro and probably look to go overweight to him this week, but he does need the finish because he is not a high-volume striker.

Underdog play of the week – William Knight – $7,800

This is one of the best fights to target on DK because of the FDNGTD line at -195 and both guys are priced in the mid-range. If one of these guys gets a 1st round KO they will likely be on the optimal lineup. I think Knight has more ways to win the fight though and he is the underdog here, so he is my preferred play, and he will be one of my favorite underdog targets on the card. He could get knocked out early, but I like the boom/bust part of this play and it is a GPP play, not a cash game underdog play.

Fade of the week – Impa Kasanganay – $9,500

I am picking Kasanganay to win this fight, but he is my fade of the week because of his DK salary. $9.5k is too much for me to pay when he is sandwiched between Yorgan de Castro and Marvin Vettori. I would rather use either of those guys because they have higher ceilings and are more likely to score over 10x. I have a hard time seeing Kasanganay get 100+ in this fight without a finish and he is coming off the KO loss of the year and dropping a weightclass for this fight. I am a bit worried about his chin as well, but he is my fade of the week because he is too expensive, and I don’t see a huge scoring coming from him.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 159-136 for +242.62u (+$24,262) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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