If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 10-fight PPV card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $20 buy-in & $150k goes to 1st place with $600,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Alonzo Menifield – $8,100
Menifield is our free square this week at $8.1k and he should be the highest owned fighter on the card. He is a -290 favorite, but we are still getting him at the same salary he was when he was in a PK fight. His best chance of winning any fight is going to be a 1st round KO and if he gets that at this price tag then he is very likely to be on the optimal lineup, so I like him in GPPs too, but he is a lock in cash. I would usually be worried about him being a 1st round or bust fighter, but I think he can win a decision in this fight which makes him safer for cash games.
GPP play of the week – Michal Oleksiejczuk – $8,500
Both sides of this fight are in play on DK for their KO potential and the -185 FDNGTD line. My preferred play is Oleksiejczuk because I think he is the better fighter everywhere and I also give him a better chance at the finish. I do like him in all formats but more so in GPPs. I think the majority of people look to get at least 1 fighter from the $9k range, and maybe even 2. Plus, people will be getting Menifield and they will load up on the Main Event. I think that will make Oleksiejczuk underowned this week and it is a 10-fight card, so we do need to think about ownership in GPPs. Bukauskas is coming off a 1st round KO loss so there is no telling how the chin holds up after that and we have Oleksiejczuk with a +160 TKO line here. If he can get a 1st round knockout at his price, he might knock off those higher owned fighters and you can split the top prize will much fewer people.
Underdog play of the week – Jamie Mullarkey – $7,600
Mullarkey is a good underdog this week because if he wins, he should score well. His best path to victory is through the mat and he will attempt to chain wrestle to get it there. He isn’t a good wrestler, but he has attempted 26 takedowns in his 2 UFC fights, so the effort is there. He could also win by KO because Worthy has a terrible chin. Mullarkey isn’t a KO puncher, but he might not have to be to knock Worthy out. I am not confident in him getting the win, but I am pretty confident he scores over 10x his price tag if he does get his hand raised.
Fade of the week – Omar Morales – $8,700
Omar just isn’t active enough for me to trust him at his $8.7k price tag. He has the ability to get there with his wrestling or KO power, I just don’t trust him go for multiple takedowns and I never like relying on a KO to score well. In his 2 UFC wins he has scored 74 and 55. Neither of those will help us at all in GPPs. Then, in his last fight he fought a pure kickboxer and he refused to wrestle which resulted in him losing a clear decision. I can’t trust this guy and he is my least favorite betting favorite on the card for DraftKings.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 158-135 for +242.12u (+$24,212) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)