If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Significant Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Control Time | +0.03 Pts/Second |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
| Quick Win Bonus | +25 Pts |
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Montel Jackson – $9,400
I think it is going to be hard to afford much Jackson in GPPs this week because of his price and the lack of good underdogs. He is the safest win on the card though and I think he has big upside as well. I like the safeness for cash games this week and I would try to lock him in if I can make it work. That way, if I don’t have much of a GPP investment in him, I can still be happy if he scores well if he is in my cash game lineup. I do like all the favorites $8.8k and up but Jackson is the one I think dominates his fight from start to finish and I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of the others lose.
GPP play of the week – Tai Tuivasa – $8,900
This is a great GPP fight because it should end early, and probably the 1st round. The 60-second bonus is in reach in this one as well. Hunsucker has never been out of round 1 in his professional MMA career, and he took this fight on couple days’ notice. I think it is kill or be killed for him and that is what we like for GPPs. Tuivasa is my preferred play and one of my top plays on the card. I think he gets 100+ here and I like him in all formats even with his low floor in a KO loss. I just think he is better and more durable and much more likely to land that big bomb. We are getting a slight discount on Tuivasa as well because he was a smaller favorite against his previous opponent and now, he has a bigger betting line with the same DK salary. Load up on Tuivasa in GPPs this week.
Underdog play of the week – Derek Brunson – $7,800
Either guy can get a KO and score 100+ in this fight. However, I can see a decision win from Holland that doesn’t put him on the optimal lineup at his salary. Brunson probably ends up on the optimal lineup at his price with any win, and he can rack up takedowns along the way. Holland is willing to accept takedowns and Brunson has been wrestling more in his last fights. I could see him landing 5+ takedowns if he is able to get a win here and at $7.8k I would be surprised to see him not score more than 10x. There are only a few underdogs on this card that I really like but Brunson is one with a high ceiling and that is why he is my dog of the week.
Fade of the week – Max Griffin – $8,500
Griffin will be a fade for me because I don’t see him getting a finish and I don’t think he scores well in a decision. He should use his reach and utilize his jab, leg kicks, and mix in a takedown each round. That should be enough to get a 30-27 decision but not a great DK score. I like too many favorites on this card who are more likely to score 100+ that I would rather just load up on those fighters and not get any exposure to Griffin at this price. I think he is likely to score in the 70’s with a win here and that won’t cut it in GPPs. That is why he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 158-135 for +242.12u (+$24,212) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
