If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
|Significant Strikes||+0.5 Pts|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
This weekend, we have an epic 12-fight PPV card back at Fight Island. This one is an early start so get your lineups in before Saturday. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $20 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $500k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Main Event Stack – Khabib $9,200 + Gaethje $7,000
This is going to be an all-in fight for me, and I will be stacking in cash games. If Gaethje wins this fight, there is no way he doesn’t end up on the optimal lineup. If Khabib wins he has 120+ point potential and he will score great as well with a lot of takedowns and advances. Maybe FightMetric deems 4% of his strikes as significant, so that would be the case for fading this in GPPs, but not in cash games. However, I doubt that will be the case with Khabib and we don’t need these guys to total 200 points for the stack to work. We are locking in the winner and the guaranteed 100+ here and we hope that our opponents just chose one of these guys and make the wrong choice. We only need to beat half the field in cash games, and it doesn’t take 6 wins to make that happen. Just start your cash lineup with these two guys and move on from there.
GPP play of the week – Joel Alvarez – $9,000
Alvarez makes a lot of sense as a GPP play this week because he will be low owned, and he has a good shot at finishing this fight. Alvarez was over -200 when these DraftKings salaries were released and now he is -160 and more expensive than Magomed Ankalaev who is currently lined at -305. That negative odds value is what will make nobody want to roster him, but he still has a +135 ITD line and he could get a finish on the feet or the mat. Yakovlev should look to wrestle in this spot and Alvarez is dangerous with his grappling. He could win this fight in round 1 and if nobody is on him this week then you will feel really good having 90+ points right out of the gate with a low owned percentage next to his name.
Underdog play of the week – Ion Cutelaba – $7,300
We have all been waiting a long time for this rematch and it is finally about to happen. We saw Cutelaba come out with a wild style in that first fight really hunting for that KO. His best chance at winning this fight is getting the early KO and if he does that in round 1 at his price of $7.3k then he breaks the slate with 100+ DK points and we will need him for the optimal lineup. This is a GPP only play as an underdog, but I do think he makes a lot of sense for those types of tournaments and he is a live underdog in this spot. I can’t wait for this fight though and I hope it is as good as we all are expecting it to be.
Fade of the week – Alex Oliveira $8,500
When these DraftKings salaries were released, Cowboy Oliveira was closer to a -200 favorite and that is why he is priced at $8.5k. The betting line has shifted to make Shavkat Rakhmonov the current favorite at -120 making Cowboy the +100 underdog. Salaries on DraftKings don’t change though so we still have Cowboy priced as the favorite over there and that makes me not want to pay his price. It will make him low owned so he is a sneaky GPP option, but he is going to be a fade for me with ~20 lineups and I would rather pay up for fighters with a higher ceiling and better ITD line.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 145-122 for +237.53u (+$23,753) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)