If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
|Significant Strikes||+0.5 Pts|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back at Fight Island. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Jessica Andrade – $8,400
I like Andrade this week as a cash game play because I think she gets 3 full rounds of action to make her have a decent floor if she loses, but I also like her to get the win. I think this is a fight Chookagian wants to keep at range and if she can do that, she will pull off the upset. Andrade is not afraid to eat a couple shots to get inside where she can work and that is what she should be looking to do in this spot. She also has takedown upside with Chookagian being taken down in 7 of her UFC fights. I think Andrade could be popular in GPPs though and Chookagian does have a difficult style to score against, so maybe we can get away from her in tournaments but I do like her as a high floor cash game play this week.
GPP play of the week – Gillian Robertson – $8,700
Robertson knows she has to get this fight to the mat to have any advantage and if she can do that she is live for a submission and she can get it in round 1 to lock in 95+ DK points. She said she wants to submit Botelho quicker than Calvillo did and if that is the case, she will get more than 10x and she has a decent shot at being on the optimal lineup at $8.7k. I do think she could be in a lot of trouble if she can’t get takedowns and maybe even TKO’d in round 1, so I don’t love her floor for cash games but that boom/bust play is what we want in GPPs and maybe a 1st round submission from her helps somebody win $100k this week.
Underdog play of the week – Gadzhimurad Antigulov – $7,100
If Antigulov wins this fight, he breaks the slate because it will most likely be a submission win in the first 2 minutes of this fight. That would score at least 95 DK points at $7.1k. We have to have some of him if we are MMEing this week and he might be the better fighter in the first 2 minutes of the fight. If he can’t get that finish, I think he is going to gas out and get knocked out. That could come in the later part of round 1 for 100+ points so I like Grishin a lot as well, but the reason Antigulov is my underdog play of the week is because we know he scores highly if he wins this fight and that is what we will need in GPPs. GPP only for him though, do not put him in cash games as your underdog play.
Fade of the week – Katlyn Chookagian $7,800
Chookagian is a fighter I never want to target on DraftKings because her style isn’t scoring friendly. She had her highest score in her last fight with 91 DK points, but she isn’t going to be able to maul Andrade like that, so I am not expecting that type of performance here. Before that, she averaged 66.5 DK points in her 6 UFC wins. If she does win this fight, I would expect it to be closer to that number and even as an underdog, I don’t see that winning anybody $100k. I will have zero exposure to Chookagian this week and I think her best shot at a high score would be an armbar from guard and that is a small percentage outcome that I am not willing to invest in.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 144-118 for +244.87u (+$24,487) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)