Big Marley’s UFC Fight Island 4 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %


Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back at Fight Island. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $300k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Casey Kenney – $9,000

I like Kenney this week and I think he is the better fighter everywhere in this matchup. I don’t know that he has the highest ceiling, but I feel like he is a fairly safe win with a decent floor, and that is more important for cash games. He also has two guys priced above him that are more likely to be finished in this fight if they lose, and that is what we can’t afford with our high-priced guys in cash games. Alateng is +600 to pull off the upset ITD and +434 to win by decision. So, even if Kenney losses it is more likely that he gets 3-rounds of scoring where somebody like Dusko Todorovic is more likely to be finished if he losses rather than losing a decision with 3-rounds of scoring.

GPP play of the week – Yorgan De Castro – $8,900

De Castro is my GPP play of the week because he is going to be boom or bust in this matchup and that is not what we want to trust in cash games. Everyone else in his salary range is a better cash game play, but De Castro could be one of the top GPP plays on the slate if he gets a knockout. This line has the highest odds on the card of ending inside the distance at -270 and with these big boys it could just take one punch. I do like all the plays $8.7k and up for GPPs, this week, but De Castro is the only one I wouldn’t even think about using in cash games because he could also lose early with one big punch and that will lose us all our cash games at his salary.

Underdog play of the week – Luigi Vendramini – $8,000

Vendramini is my preferred DK play in the first fight of the night, which I always like to target in GPPs, because he has the better chance of being on the $100k lineup. I think he is more likely to get a 1st round finish whether that be a KO or submission, and I do expect him to come out hot. This would be more of a GPP play and I would probably pass on this fight in cash games, but he is one of my favorite underdogs on the card, so I am not against it. He is my underdog of the week though because he could have 100-points after the first fight of the night and if you don’t have that in your lineup you might already feel like you have no chance of hitting that 100k.

Fade of the week – Germaine de Randamie $8,600

I am actually picking GDR to get the win this week, I just don’t like her as a DraftKings play. The only way she will be able to score high enough to be on the $100k lineup would be to get a knockout. She won’t be looking to get any takedown or advance points, so it is just significant strikes and the win bonus that she will score for unless she gets that knockout. GDR by (T)KO is currently lined at +390 so I don’t think that is an outcome we should invest heavily in when other favorites on this card have an easier and more likely path to 100+ points.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 141-114 for +243.73u (+$24,373) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)



Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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