Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN 9 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %


Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have an 11-fight card in Vegas that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some amazing contests for us to win a bunch of money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $150k goes to 1st place with a total of $600k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $150k. I will probably throw a handful of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Mackenzie Dern – $9,300

The real cash game play is Daniel Rodriguez, but I am using him later so didn’t want to throw him on here twice. However, with Rodriguez locked in, we have the salary to get up to Dern who is the biggest favorite on the card. She has a massive edge on the ground in this fight and if she lands one takedown it could be over shortly afterwards. I like the safety of this pick for cash games and she has a solid ceiling as well with her 1st round submission potential.

GPP play of the week – Tim Elliott – $8,700

Elliott is a boom/bust fighter and that is what we want for GPPs. You never know if he is going to show up or not but if he does, he scores well. In his 3 UFC wins, he has scored 109, 176, and 136. That kind of ceiling is too good to pass up on and I think we need a decent amount of exposure to Elliott in GPPs. I am not confident he gets the win at all here but he does have a big edge in the wrestling/grappling department and that is how he will rack up points if he is able to get his hand raised.

“Underdog” play of the week – Daniel Rodriguez – $7,300

This is our “free square this week”. With Kevin Holland pulling out of this fight we now have Rodriguez priced as a significant underdog but against his new opponent he is one of the biggest favorites on the card. If Rodriguez wins this fight I think he will score well and we will have to have him in our lineups. Just start here and work on being different elsewhere in your lineups. Maybe use a contrarian fighter or leave salary on the table to try and have a better shot at a unique lineup where you can take down $150k solo.

Fade of the week – Katlyn Chookagian $7,700

Chookagian is always a fade for me on DraftKings. In 6 UFC wins her highest score is 83 points. She has never landed a takedown in the UFC and the majority of the strikes she throws she misses. She just doesn’t land a high enough percentage of her strikes to score well in decisions and she isn’t a finisher. I won’t have any lineups with Chookagian this week for that reason and that is why she is my fade of the week.


This post is courtesy of BigMarley3

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Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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