Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN+ 24 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

Scoring

Moves

Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in North Carolina. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $125k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of lineups chasing that $25k. I will probably focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests and if I play any higher stake contests those will be the ones I enter. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly focusing on the big wins and won’t play a ton of cash games this week.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Montel Jackson – $9,400

Jackson is probably my favorite play on the card, the only issue is affording him. I like him anywhere this fight goes, and I think he has one of the higher ceilings on the card. I am also confident he gets the win, so I will lock him into my cash lineup. He does have a -105 ITD line and if he doesn’t get that finish then I am not confident he pays off his salary here, so he isn’t a must have in GPPs. With him having by far the biggest betting line that makes him the safe play I want for my cash game.

GPP play of the week – Herbert Burns $7,900

I am not confident at all that Burns is getting a win here, I am just pretty confident he scores well if he does win. He is going to need to get a submission to win this fight and I think it would come early if he is to get it. This is a boom or bust play so only for GPPs, but I think Burns makes a lot of sense at his $7.9k price tag. If he gets 90+ with a 1st round submission, then he has a good chance of being on that $25k lineup and that is what I am shooting for.

Underdog play of the week – Junior Dos Santos – $7,200

With 5 rounds to work with, JDS is going to score well if he is able to get a win this week. If he can stuff Blaydes takedowns he is probably going to box Blaydes up and possibly get a finish. He could get mauled early and score nothing, so it’s another boom/bust type play here but he is my favorite underdog of the week and I will look to be overweight on him in tournaments.

Fade of the week – Arnold Allen $9,200

I like Arnold Allen to get the win here against Nik Lentz, I just don’t like his $9.2k salary. At that price I want at least 92 DK points and he has never scored over 90 in his UFC career. He should be low owned so if you want to take a shot on him and hope he gets an early finish at low owner ship then I wouldn’t talk you off it. I just won’t have any Allen this week with my 10-20 lineups because I like all the fighters priced around him more.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 108-80 for +263.78u (+$26,378) since May 19th 2018 on Premium Plays)

https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/

Written by Kyle Marley

mma, ufc,, odds, betting, picks, bets, gambling, fightodds, nick kalikas, brian hemminger, UFC on ESPN+ 25

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