Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN+ 12 DrafKings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %



Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have an 11-fight card in Greenville, South Carolina. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win a lot of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 3rd seat this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $30k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Main Event STACK – Renato Moicano and Chan Sung Jung

For me, this is an easy stack in cash week. I think we easily have a floor of 100 with Renato Moicano and The Korean Zombie with upside of ~150. It also guarantees us the winner. As I have mentioned many times in the past, we don’t need 6 wins in cash games, so play those type of games safer and all you have to do is beat half the field. Usually 4 wins or 400+ points is good enough to cash in most cash games. Even if you have a strong lean on this fight I still recommend stacking.

GPP play of the week – Jairzinho Rozenstruik – $9,000

Rozenstruik has the highest ITD line on the card at -140 and he can easily hit 100+ DK points by getting that in round 1. The worry here would be him being on his back in round 1 and scoring zero points during that and then going out and getting a KO in round 2. Or no KO at all. Either of those would take him off the optimal lineup so we need this fight to stay standing and ideally an early KO. I think that is very possible and he will be a core GPP play of mine this week. He isn’t the greatest cash game play though because he could be put on his back and be stuck there and possibly even lose the fight that way. I am OK with him in cash, but I won’t be making that a priority like I will being overweight in GPPs.

Underdog play of the week – Anderson Dos Santos – $7,900

This betting line is about pickem’ with a slight lean towards Dos Santos. However, Ewell is the favorite on DraftKings and is $400 more than ADS. Ewell is also the striker so for him to score highly he is likely going to need a finish. His weakness is Anderson Dos Santos’ strength though. Ewell has a hard time staying off his back and if ADS can put him there he could possibly submit him. Or he could rack up multiple takedowns for a high decision score. I like the value we are getting on him at $7.9k and I like that he should be looking to grapple in this fight. That is why I had to pick him as my dog of the week.

Fade of the week – Syuri Kondo $8,000

There are no real easy fades this week. I do have a full fade on Kondo though because she looks to be purely a striker and I believe Ashely Yoder’s best path to victory is through grappling. If Kondo isn’t in a striking match for 15-minutes I don’t see how she scores highly unless she gets a finish. I don’t think she has KO power, so I think it is purely the significant strikes and the win bonus that we would be relying on here. I would rather take a fighter with more of a chance to finish or who is more likely to grapple. That is why Kondo is my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 81-51 for +251.89u (+$25,189) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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