Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN+8 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %



Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Florida. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 50-100 entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Roosevelt Roberts – $9,500

I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter anywhere this fight goes. I think Gifford’s best shot at a win would be locking up a guillotine. Other than that, I think we have a fairly safe win here with Roberts and that is what I am looking for. I want the safer wins in cash and I can worry about who is going to score the highest in GPPs. I think we can get away from him in the GPPs at his price because if he puts up 90 DK points in a win then that won’t win $25k. It will help us win in cash games though and I would be surprised if he had a low scoring win here. I think he is good for 80-100 points here and I am totally ok with that in my cash lineup.

GPP play of the week – Greg Hardy- $9,300

Hardy is my GPP play of the week and he has the highest ITD odds on the card at -222. This is a set up fight for him to get a knockout and I think that is most likely going to happen in the first round. That should put Hardy over 100 points and I am interested in that. Hardy is going to be one of my top plays of the week, but he is GPP only for me. We can’t trust him enough for cash games, so that is why I like Roberts more in that format. I do think Hardy can outscore Roberts though if they both win, and he is $200 cheaper. That could knock Roberts off the top lineup and even with high ownership we can win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup as long as he gets the early KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is lined at -130 and that is too good for me to pass on in GPPs.

Underdog play of the week – Glover Teixeira – $7,900

Teixeira is no longer the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change once they are released. We get Teixeira here for $400 cheaper than Cutelaba and he is favored to get the win. I also think he could win in the 1st round with a submission and score over 90 points. That would give him a good shot at being on the optimal lineup. I will be targeting both sides of this fight in GPPs because I don’t expect it to go all 3 rounds, but that value on Teixeira is what I like the most and we have to have “underdogs” in our DK lineups with the $50k salary cap. I think the clear path to victory for Glover is on the ground and that is what I expect his game plan to be. I like him to get a submission win if he can land takedowns and he will be one of my highest owned underdogs this week.

Fade of the week – Carla Esparza ($8,200)

I know people were expecting me to put Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She is a solid fade as well… However, I am going with Esparza as my fade this week and I will have zero lineups including her. In general, Esparza is a decent wrestler and we like wrestlers in DraftKings. I just don’t see wrestling being in her best interest against Jandiroba and I think she uses her wrestling in defense to try to keep this fight on the feet. All the danger is on the ground in this matchup and Carla has the better boxing of the two. I think she could win a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I would guess it puts up around ~60 DK points. That isn’t going to cut it at $8.2k so I just don’t see how she ends up on the $25k lineup this week even if she does win, and that is why she is my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 69-44 for +224.83u (+$22,483) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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