Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN+7 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %



Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Russia. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week considering it is a smaller card and starts at 10:15am ET. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Roxanne Modafferi – $6,900

I don’t think there are any cash locks this week, so I wanted to bring up a cash strategy I use a lot of the time, which is punting in cash and accepting a loss. I don’t think Roxy gets the win here, but she is only $6.9k and I think she gets 15-minutes of action. I like the floor that comes with that and punting with her cheap price allows us to fit in more of the higher favorites with our other 5 spots. We don’t need 6 wins in cash games, so I don’t think we need to even try for it. I like playing cash games safer and if I can lock in 25-35 points in a loss from Roxy at her cheap price I am totally ok with that. I always look for 4 wins in cash and over 350-400 DK points. That is my goal every week. Let everyone else make the mistakes and just shoot for a score that can beat 50% or more of the field.

GPP play of the week – Alistair Overeem – $8,900

This is an all-in fight for GPPs in my opinion and I like Overeem as one of my top plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so I would be shocked to see this go all 5 rounds. I also think Overeem will be too quick for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is levels ahead of him in the striking game. The only shot Oleinik has of winning on the feet is by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing submission. Other than those two outcomes, Overeem will smoke him on the feet. I also think Overeem can work his way back to his feet if he is taken down and the more Oleinik shoots for takedowns the quicker he will gas out. I like the -175 ITD line that comes with Overeem here and I think he gets a finish in round 1 or 2. That should give us close to 100 DK points if not more, and I want that in a lot of my GPP lineups.

Underdog play of the week – Rafael Fiziev – $7,700

Fiziev is no longer the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change once they are released. We get Fiziev here for $800 cheaper than Mustafaev and he is favored to get the win. I was really impressed with what I saw from this kid and I agree with the line movement. I do think he gets the win here, but it is the DK value that we want to be sure to get exposure to this weekend. I think he is a great play in cash games with the current value and I expect to be overweight on him in GPPs as well. We have to roster underdogs in our lineups and when we can use a favorite as one of those “underdogs” then I am usually on board for that.

Fade of the week – Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)

Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of the week because of her $9.3k price tag. I do think she gets the win here as I mentioned earlier, I just don’t see how she can pay off that salary without a finish. I don’t see her shooting for any takedowns in this match, and I don’t want to rely on her getting knockdown points either. So, we are only going to be receiving 0.5 points per significant strike, and then the 30-point win bonus if she wins a decision. If that is the case, we would need her to land over 126 sig strikes just to get more than 10x value. I don’t see that being the case and I think she more likely scores 80-85 DK points in a decision win. At her salary, that won’t win anybody the big $25k. That is the prize I am shooting for so that is why she is my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 69-41 for +237.39u (+$23,739) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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