Newark, NJ — The co-main event of UFC 328 features one of the more fascinating matchups in the promotion between two young, high-upside fighters: current champion Joshua Van and rising Japanese superstar Tatsuro Taira.
It’s a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup featuring two promising fighters who could carry the promotion moving forward.
I like Joshua Van. He has done very well for himself, moving up quickly through the ranks and fighting often. He kept his momentum going and captured the flyweight championship with a fluky win over longtime champion Alexandre Pantoja. I call it fluky because if you simulated that fight 100 or even 1,000 times, the same result — Pantoja falling back and planting his hand, causing his arm to dislocate — would happen a handful of times. Planting your hand like that to brace a fall is a novice mistake in grappling. Either way, congrats to Van on the win. No one can take that away from him.
I’ve been very high on Taira for the last several years, and he has continued to expand and refine his skill set. In his fight against Moreno, he spent most of the first round stuck in a triangle, but he dominated the second round with heavy ground-and-pound after a well-set-up trip takedown from the clinch.
This matchup largely comes down to whether Taira can get his takedowns by any means necessary — double leg, clinch trip, back take, etc. Taira has plenty of ways to get Van to the ground. If he does, Van will be in a world of hurt. The difference in their ground games is night and day, and it likely won’t end well for Van.
Taira will need to keep his defense tight while closing the distance because of Van’s high strike volume. The champion doesn’t possess one-punch knockout power, but he throws with good volume and mixes up his strikes well. I expect Van to be on the back foot and potentially gun-shy out of fear of Taira’s takedowns. Once Taira starts threatening takedowns and using feints, I expect Van to become even more hesitant to throw, which should make this fight much easier for Taira.
This simply a stylistic matchup and Tatsuro Taira is my pick here, and I like him quite a bit in this spot. Anything under -200 is solid value. I’m also throwing a small dart on him to win by TKO around +700 to +800. That’s definitely possible given how powerful his strikes are from mount. Van may be stuck if he gets mounted or his back taken. While a rear-naked choke with a body lock is probably the most likely finish, I’ll be on Taira’s moneyline with a small TKO ticket as well.
Best of luck, and thanks for reading!
