Ciryl Gane Wins By Unanimous Decision (+400)
Cyril Gane gets his first opportunity at a world title while his opponent Francis Ngannou has the chance to successfully defend his title for the very first time. While I think Ngannou has the tools to be a successful heavyweight champion it is his flaws in his technique of his striking, defense, and willingness to sit back sometimes too long in fights. His wild exchanges leave him very open to counters and being picked apart from the outside. However his scary knockout power will always keep him in a fight until the very end. I am picking Gane to take a risk-free approach here in this fight by staying on the outside and avoiding the big power of Ngannou. Much like he did against Derrick Lewis to win the interim title Gane will use the speed of the kicks and striking while jumping in and out of the range of Ngannou to pick him apart. He should look to increase the volume as the fight goes on as Ngannou does not have a gas tank suitable for twenty-five minutes. I like the price on Gane to win a unanimous decision so I have no issue taking it when I can see it happening.
Moreno vs Figueiredo Total O3.5 (-130)
This fight and how it plays out really depends on what version of Figueiredo shows up Saturday. If he shows up anything close to how he did in their first meeting it could be a back and forth exciting fight again with Figueiredo swinging the hammer. The power he carries is just scary as he is about the only flyweight with real power to finish a fight. But, he could also show up how he did in their rematch and that was just a night and day difference. His weight cut looked rough, he may have been sick, we do not really know the full circumstances of his condition on that night. But we do know that Moreno looked much improved and was just on it that night with plenty of preparation in his camp. Figueiredo looks really good in his photos he has shared – he looks healthy, lean, and should be much more prepared for the rubber match. Knowing that, this should be a much more technical fight with it mostly being contested on the feet but expect some takedowns mixed in as well. We know Moreno has an incredible chin and outstanding durability so I do not expect him to get finished. Figueiredo will be pressing the action with his aggressive style and Moreno will not be able to get full extended counters off either. I have a good feeling this fight may go to the scorecards with two men who have fought each other to know their strengths and weaknesses well enough that it could be a closely contested fight.