UFC Vegas 44 Jose Aldo vs Rob Font Prop Betting Selection

I always thought Rob Font never received the respect and recognition for where he ranked in the featherweight division. He has just four losses in his professional mixed martial arts career. One of them came in just his second fight whilst the other three came to some of the best at bantamweight – John Lineker, Pedro Munhoz, and Raphael Assuncao. Font has not lost in three years now and is on a four-fight winning streak as he returns from a lopsided victory over Cody Garbrandt in May. Font’s pace, toughness, and willingness to eat one or two to give a few back is a huge testament to how he just breaks fighters down to win fights.

Font’s opponent needs really no introduction as he is widely considered not only the greatest featherweight of all-time but also one of the greatest mixed martial arts fighters ever. Aldo has very, very slim holes in his game and they have only really become more exposed due to father time. It is his cardio issues that you see become a problem for him against fighters who can push him and drown him in the back half of a fight such as Max Holloway and Petr Yan. Aldo is now thirty-five years of age but can still take a punch and can still easily dish out damage with his incredible body work and combinations. His head-to-body combinations still may be the very best in MMA today.

This is a tough fight to predict because I can see it going in favor of either man. In order for Aldo to be victorious he needs to command the center of the octagon and not let Font get too comfortable where he begins pushing Aldo back and putting volume on him. Aldo needs to immediately work in his leg kicks (which he still does not throw enough of) to break down Font from his base which will affect his offense and mobility. Aldo’s leg kicks are still his very best weapon in his arsenal so it was a pleasant surprise to see him throw and land eight of them in his decision victory against Munhoz in August. With this being a five round fight Aldo needs to be aggressively conservative here. Conservative enough to have wind for the later rounds (assuming it goes there due to Font’s toughness) but aggressive enough to win rounds and break down Font early on. As for Font he will need to do pretty much the opposite of what I stated for Aldo’s path to victory. He needs to not let Aldo get comfortable early on where Aldo can tee off with combinations to the head, body, and legs. Aldo can still throw kicks moving back and in the pocket but Font will be able to eventually make Aldo break if he can keep the pace and volume on Aldo where he cannot keep up.

I have to favor the Brazilian here because he is still so good despite him getting older. With no disrespect to Font I believe Aldo is just still better here wherever the fight may take place – which should be 90% on the feet. Aldo usually starts off very sharp and effective and I have a feeling Font may eat some strikes early on from Aldo’s effective countering and power punching. If Aldo can avoid letting Font get comfortable and push a tough pace on him then he should be able to slowly break down Font throughout the fight enroute to a five round decision victory. Inching Jose Aldo closer to a second title shot at bantamweight.

Prop: Jose Aldo Wins By Decision (+250)

Written by Chris White

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