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Event: UFC Vegas 19 (Feb. 20th)
Bet: Risking 2 units @ -180 on Minner vs. Rosa UNDER 2.5 Rounds
Statistically, the UNDER 2.5 rounds hits at a rate of 83.02% for their combined pro-MMA careers, whereas the -180 odds suggest a rate of 64.3%. Minner also has not been past the 2nd round since January 2017.
Stylistically, Darrick Minner is usually very aggressive early in fights in pursuit of the finish. I think Minner’s wrestling (i.e., double leg and single leg takedown ability) is good enough to take Rosa down (i.e., Rosa has 45% takedown defense per ufcstats.com and accepts getting taken down because he’s confident in his BJJ), where I think he is likely to threaten Rosa with various submissions (i.e., Minner is a skilled scrambler, an opportunistic submission threat, and has a threatening guard). Rosa had his guard passed several times by Dennis Siver and Bryce Mitchell, so despite being a BJJ Black Belt, it seems likely Minner can put him in some trouble early (after all, he had Grant Dawson in serious submission attempts in round 1).
Suppose Minner is unsuccessful in finishing Rosa early. In that case, he’s shown to slow down as the fight progresses historically (i.e., gassed against Camus and Sanders), thus leaving him susceptible to getting finish (i.e., had his guard passed multiple times, reversed on the ground because he is submission over position, and submitted in eight of his eleven pro-MMA losses). Rosa has shown enough submission grappling capability (i.e., has a threatening guard, BJJ Black Belt, eight of his thirteen wins are via submission) that allows me to think he can finish this fight on the ground.