Bet: Risking 4 units @ -350 on Timur Valiev to win versus Martin Day
Valiev is the vastly superior fighter everywhere the fight goes, and Day is taking this fight on short notice (i.e., stepping in for Julio Arce). Day can finish him on the feet, but I think Valiev actually has the better chin (i.e., Day has been knocked out cold and rocked by several different fighters often). Also, this fight takes place at 145lbs. There is a possibility the durability of each fight looks better.
Valiev is far better here. Valiev has a more diverse set of attacks (i.e., oblique kick, front kick, question mark kick, step in elbow & knee) while working the head, body, and leg. Valiev also has superior footwork, range management, technical striking, countering ability, and combinations.
Valiev also pressures, which Day has shown to react well to. Day has a 6-inch reach and is a solid striker himself with some power, but the aggregate of the striking exchanges very likely favor Timur.
Timur and his team may look to take this fight to the floor as a path of least resistance. Day’s grappling has historically shown to be a liability (i.e., his back has been taken multiple times, has been put in many different sub attempts, scrambling ability can be improved, and his TDD has shown to be shaky). Timur is a BJJ Brown Belt (i.e., will look to advance position in top position) who has a good double leg takedown with the ability to chain wrestle (i.e., Master of Sports in Sambo, amongst other strong credentials).
Timur is a far superior grappler, so he very likely can control where this fight takes place where he holds an advantage in either area.
I bet on Timur Valiev because he is the vastly superior fighter in both striking and grappling who is also more prepared for this bout.