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Event: UFC Fight Island 8 (Jan. 20th)
Bet: 1.5 units @ +115 Omari Akhmedov to win versus Tom Breese
Add-on bet: .25 units @ +135 on Omari Akhmedov to win
The implied odds I made for this fight are Ahkmedov -150/60% chance to win. Let’s discuss!
The main reason for this bet is that I believe Ahkmedov is a much stronger grappler than Breese. Therefore, he can land takedowns and earn enough top control time to win at least two rounds. Ahkmedov is a stronger grappler than Breese because Ahkmedov’s outwrestled and taken down outstanding wrestlers multiple times (i.e., Cummings, Weidman, Heinisch). Whereas, we’ve seen Breese taken down and controlled by Allen and Nakamura (i.e., from the body lock), who are not as credentialed nor as strong of a wrestler as Akhmedov is.
Breese offered no resistance from his back against Allen, which is a huge concern because, on paper, Breese is an active grappler in grappling competition as a BJJ Black Belt. Ahkmedov has not shown to be a dangerous finisher in the UFC, but I wouldn’t put a ground & pound stoppage past him here.
Breese is the better striker (i.e., is much more technical, threatening) and is potentially the fresher fighter down the stretch (i.e., Ahkmedov historically gets tired in round 3), which he may finish Ahkmedov should it happen. Still, I cap his chances of winning this fight no more than 40% since I believe Ahkmedov will control where this fight takes place. Also, Ahkmedov has the much more proven UFC resume in my eyes (i.e., wins over Heinisch, Cummings, and Boetsch).
