Three Not For Me: The Fights To Pass On for UFC Fight Island 4

We’re on the heels of UFC 253 where Israel Adesanya retained his belt and handed Paulo Costa his first pro loss. This week in the main event, we have Irene Aldana drawing Holly Holm in her toughest test to date – a fight where the winner will throw their name in that hat for title contention.

First time reading this piece? I go through 3 fights on the upcoming UFC card that you should avoid from a betting perspective and the reasoning why. As bettors, we’re constantly looking to find our betting opportunities but identifying those spots to stay away are just as important.

**NOTE: The perspective being given in this article is from where current odds sit at the time of writing. Also, my analysis in regards to passing on these fights is from a STRAIGHT betting perspective.

Let’s jump into it!

Court McGee (-130) vs Carlos Condit (+110)

This matchup pits two fighters against each other who’ve been around for many years now and on the “back 9” of their careers.

This fight’s intriguing in the sense that both guys could have varying amounts of success. Condit’s consistently struggled with his TDD but McGee’s went to his wrestling somewhat sparingly over the years as well. But if McGee attempts TDs at a decent clip, he should be able to steal minutes with top time. When on the feet, I think McGee can out-box him but if super aggressive Condit comes, McGee’s shown to be pretty hittable as well. No disrespect to McGee but I think it’s important to note that this is Condit’s biggest step down in competition since he started in the UFC almost a decade ago. Also, whereas McGee has proven to be durable throughout the course of his UFC career, he’s starting to take more and more shots.

I agree with McGee being a slight favorite here so I don’t really see any value on the line. At the end of the day, both guys are relatively over-the-hill which I think leads to a high-variance spot. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Condit comes out and plays spoiler but I’m not willing trust it at this point, especially at the given price.

I’d sit back and watch the two vets duke it out.

Germaine de Randamie (-135) vs Julianna Pena (+115)

GDR is looking to rebound after her first loss in nearly 7 years and Julianna Pena is looking to extend her winning streak to 2.

I feel this fight’s somewhat binary but also very intriguing at the same time. GDR is clearly the better striker in this spot and if Pena isn’t able to land TD’s with consistency, she’s going to get picked apart at range, if not finished. But the big looming question in the fight is will GDR be able to stuff those TDs? Important to note, she did stuff all 17 TD attempts against Holm & Pennington but in the Nunes fight, she was taken a lot and not able to get back up. Personally, I think Pena’s wrestling is a bit over-rated but GDR hasn’t shown much urgency to get back to her fight when she’s grounded. So if Pena lands TDs, she’ll most likely be able to get a decent amount of top time. It’s just one of those fight in who is able to get off on their game.

The line is roughly correct to me with a slight lean-to GDR as every fight starts on the feet and with her having more finishing upside as well. But the argument is definitely there for Pena too. In a fight like this, I feel you should require a plus number and a decent one at that for bet consideration. If you’re backing GDR, you’re assuming she stuffs TDs and out-strikes Pena (possible). If you’re backing Pena, you’re assuming she’s able to get TDs with consistency (while avoid the KO shot) and get enough top time to out-due anything GDR will be able to do on the feet (possible). Ultimately, I think you’re making a bit of a leap of faith on either girl as both of those outcomes are very probable going into this fight.

Save your money as this may be a good live-betting opportunity.

Holly Holm (-125) vs Irene Aldana (+105)

Holly Holm is looking to put together back-to-back wins for the first time since 2015 and Irene Aldana is getting her toughest test to date.

This is another super tough fight to call. You have the high-volume boxer in Aldana vs the excellent counter-striker in Holm. Which wins? In general, in WMMA, I largely favor the high-output fighter but it’s not so simple in this spot. Holly’s proven to be one of the best counter-strikers, if not the best counter-striker in WMMA history. Aldana’s shown to be extremely hittable so there’s nothing to suggest to me that Holly won’t be able to tag her with shots. The question is, can Holly put her out? If she can’t, even though she may be countering “effectively” throughout the fight, Aldana’s pace is pretty crazy. She’ll take a shot to land to 2 or 3 three more, all while in constant motion. So, the question then becomes if we don’t see a finish materialize from either fighter, how will the judges be scoring these rounds? I feel like the optics will be favoring Aldana as she’ll be the advancing fighter who will be throwing more volume. I also don’t want to discredit the potential finishing ability of Aldana here as well.

I personally put this fight at pick em but I think there is a valid argument to made for either girl being a slight-favorite. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a finish come from either girl (Holly more likely in my opinion) and I wouldn’t shocked to see either girl win this fight on the cards (Aldana more likely in my opinion). This is a spot where people will be wanting to “plant their flag” on either fighter and that’s a mistake in my estimation. Given the stylistics of the fight, I would require a much bigger plus number attached to either fighter for bet consideration.

I’d recommend sitting back, grabbing a beverage and seeing if Aldana can beat her toughest test to date.


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Written by Luke Lampe - Sparring with Reality Betting

Writer/Fight Connoisseur
Contributor @mmaoddsbreaker
UFC Betting Advice

Follow on Twitter: @SWR_Betting

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