Three Not For Me: The Fights To Pass On for UFC Vegas 9

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On the heels of a dominant performance by Aleksander Rakic at UFC Vegas 8 last week, we turn to UFC Vegas 9 headlined by Alistair Overeem and Augusto Sakai.

First time reading this piece? I go through 3 fights on the upcoming UFC card that you should avoid from a betting perspective and the reasoning why. As bettors, we’re constantly looking to find our betting opportunities but identifying those spots to stay away are just as important.

**NOTE: The perspective being given in this article is from where current odds sit at the time writing. Also, my analysis in regards to passing on these fights is from a STRAIGHT betting perspective.

Let’s jump into it!


Alexander Romanov (-130) vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+110)

Marcos Rogerio de Lima is looking put together back-to-back wins for the first time since debuting back in 2014. Alexander Romanov will finally be making his UFC debut after having his first two, scheduled bouts cancelled due to COVID issues.

This is an intriguing bout as I was almost sure I was going to have a bet on Romanov but after digging into, I’m good. There are a multitude of question marks going into this fight for me. First, if Romanov chooses to wrestle, can he control De Lima? Secondly, does Romanov have the submission acumen to beat a guy in De Lima who’s historically struggled in the grappling? Lastly, how does Romanov deal with any potential resistance provided by De Lima on the feet or on the ground? I’m always super skeptical about these undefeated fighters coming in who’ve faced little adversity, coupled with fighting spotty competition. I think we’ll get some solid questions answered in this fight.

From a betting perspective, this is the kind of fight where I would want +150 on either side for bet consideration. There are question marks on Romanov making his debut and De Lima is a historic under-performer in my estimation. With that, I could see the fight going a multitude of ways, requiring a much bigger plus number to back a side.

I would save your money on this one!


Viviane Araujo (-170) vs Montana de La Rosa (+150)

Montana De La Rosa is looking to extend her UFC record to 5-1 and Viviane Araujo is looking to rebound after her first UFC loss.

This is a tricky fight but one that’s also somewhat binary at the same time. Conventional wisdom here is that if this fight stays standing, it’s Araujo all-day. If this fight hits the mat, it increases Montana’s chances of winning exponentially. While I largely agree with that, there’s one big looming question? With the loss to Jessica Eye, was that the wake-up call Araujo needed to address her cardio issues? If it was, it could be a long night for Montana if she can’t get this fight down. Now, Araujo has displayed perfect takedown defense but the one time she was on her back (position reversal vs Alexis Davis), she was controlled for three minutes and didn’t get back to her feet of her own volition (round ended). With that, the question becomes can Montana land TDs in some of the lulls in Araujo’s pace throughout the fight? Honestly, I don’t know the answer to that question which is a very large factor in this match up.

I put Araujo –150, so the current line sits a bit above that but money has slowly rolled in on Montana throughout the week. Ultimately, if you’re backing Araujo, you’re hoping her cardio holds up (nothing to suggest it will historically) and that she’s able to still do enough on the feet to win the fight — which is a decent possibility but I wouldn’t lay the chalky price given that consideration. If you’re backing Montana, you’re assuming she’s able to land TD’s (tall task against a girl with perfect TDD) and get extensive amounts of control time to out-due what Araujo can do on the feet. Either way, I think you’d be taking a bit of a leap of faith in backing either girl.

This fights a definite pass for me.


Thiago Moises (-160) vs Jalin Turner (+140)

This is a matchup between two, 25-year old prospects who are looking to secure their 3rd respective UFC victories.

Similar to the matchup above, this is a fight that seems pretty binary but has a few wrinkles in it as well. Conventional wisdom is that while this fight’s standing, Turner has a massive size/reach advantage and he should piece Moises up. On the other side, if this fight hits the mat, Moises is one of the best submission grapplers that Turner has ever faced and that he won’t be able to survive the ground. Once again, both sentiments I largely agree with but with a few caveats. I think Moises’s striking is under-rated as people are mainly looking at his UFC fights where he’s fought a very tough slate of guys (very well rounded, solid strikers at that). If he doesn’t accept the back foot and looks to get inside, I think he can have more success on the feet in this spot than he’s getting credit for. For Turner, he’s actually a BJJ Brown Belt (little known fact) and when he’s been on the ground, he’s shown to be defensively responsible when in bad positions. The question is, does he possess the defensive ability against the caliber of BJJ that Moises brings? Ultimately, lot of question marks.

Moises opened up over 2-1 and all of the action has been coming in on Turner which I agree with. But at current price, the value on Turner has been eroded. I can’t recommend laying the chalk on Moises as I’m skeptical he’ll be able to close distance effectively against the length of Turner to ultimately, get off on pocket striking exchanges or land his TDs. I also can’t recommend backing Turner here as if this fight does hit the mat, it could be over shortly after.

I’d kick back and watch this one play out.


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Written by Luke Lampe - Sparring with Reality Betting

Writer/Fight Connoisseur
Contributor @mmaoddsbreaker
UFC Betting Advice

Follow on Twitter: @SWR_Betting


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