On the heels of a controversial main event last week, this week’s main event between Aleksandar Rakic and Anthony Smith should prove to produce fireworks!
First time reading this piece? I go through 3 fights on the upcoming UFC card that you should avoid from a betting perspective and the reasoning why. As bettors, we’re constantly looking to find our betting opportunities but identifying those spots to stay away are just as important.
**NOTE: The perspective being given in this article is from where current odds sit at the time writing. Also, my analysis in regards to passing on these fights is from a STRAIGHT betting perspective.
Let’s jump into it!
Emily Whitmire (-120) vs Polyana Viana (+100)
These girls we’re scheduled to fight earlier this year back at UFC 248 but Whitmire had to pull out after getting very sick, due to a tough weight cut. They’re now scheduled to square back off 5 months later.
Not to disrespect either of these girls as their willing combatants but I would classify this one as a “dumpster fire”. I do think Viana is the better fighter overall but has shown poor fight IQ historically. She’s pulled guard in numerous bouts, most notably the Cifers fight – which could have been the deciding factor in the 1st round. I think she actually has the striking edge here against Whitmire but if she flops again, she could get smothered on top, pounded out or submitted. I know people reference that Viana is Black Belt and Whitmire is a Blue Belt but I saw Viana make a very simple grappling mistake in her last bout against Macedo – getting submitted with ease by a girl who was an “inferior” grappler on paper at least. On the feet, the striking exchanges should be close but I’d give Viana the edge with volume. Ultimately, I could see both girls having varying amounts of success in all realms of this fight.
With that being said, the near pick em’ price is justified. It’s just a spot where I don’t think you can trust either fighter with your money. They’ve both shown questionable fight IQ and poor defensive tendencies in the striking and grappling. If you’re betting a side here, you’re throwing your money up in the air and hoping it falls on the right side.
This is the definition of a pass fight.
Zak Cummings is making his 4th appearance at 185lbs looking to extend his record to 3-1 in the division. Alessio Di Chirico wants to get back in the win column after dropping his last two fights.
As the odds indicate at essentially pick em’, this one could go either. I think both fighters have good qualities about their games but often find themselves in close fights. In this spot, you have the power in Di Chirico versus the Black Belt, counter-striker in Cummings. I predict this fight to largely take place on the feet. Both guys have shown to be hittable but I like Alessio to do just enough to edge a decision here. However, the counter game of Cummings is on-point so Alessio needs to provide calculated pressure and avoid the ground to get the job done.
I feel the odds are correct at pick em’ as I don’t think you can trust either guy to step on the gas and really “fight for your money”. We’ve seen stints of it from Alessio but not in the aggregate. Alessio opened around +120 so if you jumped on that, I don’t think that’s a terrible bet. But in a fight that I see being pretty low-volume and having split decision written all over it, I would need at least +150 (10%> edge) for bet consideration.
Save your money here guys!
Magomed Ankalaev (-330) vs Ion Cutelaba (+270)
This fight’s a rematch from back in February where Ankalaev scored a 1st round TKO over Cutelaba. However, there was a lot of controversy as the stoppage was considered premature by most.
With the first fight ending so quickly and no real indication that Cutelaba was “actually” hurt, there isn’t much to take away from it. I think Ankalaev is the much better fighter but when you’re fighting a guy like Cutelaba, you’ve got to mind your P’s & Q’s. While Cutelaba isn’t very technical, he can have opponents looking up at lights in the matter of moments. But, if Ankalaev uses his technical striking prowess and doesn’t engage in the firefight to mitigate risk, he wins this fight a good chunk of the time.
Interestingly enough, Ankalaev was all the way down –190 at one point in the original iteration of this matchup. He now sits over 75% indication so I don’t see any value on him at this price with how dangerous Cutelaba can be. I also don’t see value on Cutelaba straight for a few reasons. First, his most likely PTV is a KO and I don’t see him out-working Ankalaev so why not just play the KO prop? Secondly, he wrestled in his fight against Roundtree but I don’t think he’ll look to do that here, especially with all of the bad blood between the two.
The lines a little high on Ankalaev but I would look elsewhere on the card.
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