This weeks ‘Three Not For Me’ rounds out the current Fight Island schedule headlined by Robert Whittaker and Darren Till. If this is the first time you’re reading this piece, I go through 3 fights on the upcoming UFC card that you should stay away from a betting perspective and the reasoning why.
**NOTE: The perspective being given in this article is from where current odds sit at the time writing. Also, my analysis in regards to passing on these fights is from a straight/total perspective. If you’re looking for sneaky props, check out some of the other content on MMA Oddsbreaker.
Alright, let’s jump in!
Paul Craig (-125) vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov (+105)
In full transparency, I feel like this is one of the more winnable fights Paul Craig is drawing in his UFC career but from what we’ve seen from him, he’s just not a guy you can really trust. Pretty much all of his wins have come from hail mary subs where his opponents have shown atrocious fight IQ. Being a grappling-based fighter, he also doesn’t possess any offensive wrestling, sub-par stand up and has proven to be very hittable.
In Antigulov, he’s been another guy whose been finish or bust usually getting KO’s or subs early in fights. The issue with Anitgulov in this matchup is two-fold. One, he backs himself straight up to the fence which does half of the work for Craig in terms of securing potential TDs. Two, he’s very hittable as well which may allow Craig openings on the feet he hasn’t had before. But, he does possess some sneaky power at times so opponents have to respect that. His TDs are decent but I don’t think he’ll run through Craig on that ground.
You just can’t trust of these guys with your money and you should look elsewhere.
Alexander Gustafsson (-340) vs Fabricio Werdum (+280)
This is definitely a fight that I want no part off. We’ve got Gustafsson making his Heavyweight debut and his first fight back since “retirement”. Then in Werdrum, he looked the worst he’s ever had in his UFC career in his last outing against Oleinik where he gassed bad.
Both guys have competed at the pinnacle of the sport for many years but I think the best years of both are behind them.
This is a fight Gus should win by virtue of keeping this fight on the feet and getting the better of the striking exchanges over three rounds. But then again, how does he look at Heavyweight and where is his mindset at? We saw Anthony Smith just sub him and he’s now fighting one of the higher-level black belts in the UFC in Werdum. But, we also saw Werdum having advantageous grappling positions against Oleinik (who is a black belt as well) but made small mistakes that you usually don’t see from Werdum.
I understand Gus being significantly favored here but by no means would I advocate a bet him at current price. In Werdum, I just don’t see how you can trust a 40+ year old Brazilian who doesn’t seem to have much left in the tank.
So overall, I don’t see any value on either guy and should be one of your bigger passes of this card.
Tom Aspinall (-230) vs Jake Collier (+190)
I’ve seen some Aspinall money coming in this week and its left me scratching my head a bit.
Aspinall will be making his debut on Saturday and still a pretty young fighter. He’s largely just ran through guys on the regional scene but his strength of competition has been very poor in turn. I think people see that he’s a BJJ Black with KO power for the heavyweight division so their running to the window but the guy is still very green make no mistake.
Collier will be making his UFC re-debut (due to injury and USADA) and debut at Heavyweight on Saturday. He’s had 6 UFC fights dating back to 2014 and has fought at both Middleweight and Light-Heavyweight historically. Jake will largely just wing big shots on the feet which has found him hurt multiple times before. He’s also struggled with his TDD and has sacrificed position habitually. However, in his most recent fight he seemed to be a bit more tamed.
I don’t see value on either guy for a multitude of reasons.
- How does Collier look at Heavyweight?
- Has Collier improved since his time off?
- How does Aspinall fair against a more battle tested guy?
- Can Aspinall handle adversity as he’s faced essentially none. The one time he did, he gave up a heel hook easily and was out grappled prior.
- What happens if this fight goes into the latter rounds for Aspinall?
Ultimately too many question marks for me – I recommend staying away.
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