Lock Worthy? UFC 251 Edition

In this article I will be breaking down the top 3 biggest favorites (per Several Bookmakers) and giving an assessment on whether they are Moneyline lock worthy, Parlay worthy, or a complete Pass. Though I may say a favorite is one of those first two options, my official bets may not reflect that. Alright, that’s pretty much it for the setup, let’s get into this.


Kamaru Usman (-225) vs Jorge Masvidal (+185)

Mind-blowing. Absolutely MIND-BLOWING that Usman is at the line he is at. I took a shot on him straight earlier in the week because I’m like, there’s no way he’s going to get better than -265 right? WRONG. This has got to be the greatest example of marketing skewing betting odds since MayMac gave us odds of a lifetime on Mayweather. Don’t get me wrong, Masvidal is no slouch, but if he didn’t have this whole marketing thing going for him, Usman would probably be AT WORST -400. Usman has all the attributes of a long-term champion. Pace, cardio, aggression, and wrestling. His striking is his weakest attribute but it still is good enough to get him by in his bouts. He is ever improving in that aspect as well so I wouldn’t be surprised to see an even better version of Kamaru come Saturday night. Take advantage of this highway robbery of a line we are getting on Kamaru while you can.

USMAN: Moneyline lock worthy


Karol Rosa (-250) vs Vanessa Melo (+210)

This should be a pretty easy fight for Rosa. She is clearly the better striker and has durability on her side which should keep her out of trouble of any hail mary attack that Melo tries to throw her way. Rosa may not be as successful as Aldana was, who I believe is a bit more polished than Rosa, but she should still win this fight running away. Not literally running away, but staying on her bike, pot-shotting Melo on her way to a decision victory. These women are still somewhat lower level bantamweights which is why it wouldn’t surprised me to see Melo squeak it out somehow. With that said, I still think Rosa is a solid parlay piece if you’re looking to add a little cherry on top of another play, maybe even someone that I’m covering next.

ROSA: Parlay worthy


Amanda Ribas (-750) vs Paige VanZant (+525)

Before I go spouting off about how great Ribas is, round of applause for PVZ for taking this challenge on in an extremely pivotal fight in her MMA career. This is the last fight on her UFC deal and pretty much either stacks the chips in her favor or the UFC’s favor depending on the outcome of this fight. If she is able to go out there and extinguish a flaming hot prospect in Ribas, she has all the right in the world to demand more money from the UFC (something she has been complaining about for the last little while). However, if she loses, it’s all but certain that she will be getting her walking papers which seems like something she’s more than okay with. That sense of comfort is hard to gauge whether it is a good thing for PVZ or not. Whether she can just go out there flow and shoot for the stars or her lack of caring about the outcome of this fight could just let Ribas get the finish within the first round. Now let’s take out all those x-factors and look at these fighters by their skills. Ribas should absolutely blow PVZ out of the water here in all aspects. The only thing I think Paige may have a slight advantage in is her wrestling. Unfortunately for her, I think Ribas has the stronger BJJ game so even if PVZ gets her down, she will have a very difficult time staying out of threatening positions. It’s hard for me to see a path to victory for PVZ. Ribas has gotten stopped in the past by Polyana Viana, but that was her lone loss about 5 years ago and she has clearly honed her skills and become a better fighter since. -750 is super steep, but I don’t mind adding her to any parlay as she seems like a shoe-in as a win.

Ribas: Parlay worthy


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