Lock Worthy? UFC on ESPN 12 Edition

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In this article I will be breaking down the top 3 biggest favorites (per 5Dimes) and giving an assessment on whether they are Moneyline worthy, Parlay worthy, or a complete Pass. Though I may say a favorite is one of those first two options, my official bets may not reflect that. Alright, that’s pretty much it for the setup, let’s get into this.

Brendan Allen (-310) vs Kyle Daukaus (+255)

Kyle has a stiff test ahead of himself in his UFC debut. Mainly a BJJ fighter who likes to drag his opponents to the ground to implement a submission-heavy game, Daukaus has hit work cut out for him in this matchup. Brendan Allen is almost a carbon copy of Daukaus but with way better stand up and much more experience under his belt against top-flight competition. Kyle will struggle to get Brendan to the ground, where he can implement his expertise, but even if he is able to he will have a difficult time finding the submission against Allen. The Roufusport product is coming off the biggest win of his career when he finished Tom Breese last time out and really cemented himself in the UFC with that signature win. The Kevin Holland win was a solid one as well where he faced early adversity but was still able to gut it out and get the submission victory. It’s hard for me to believe Daukaus gives Allen any problems and I think even the -310 is a gift of a line here.

ALLEN: Straight worthy

 

Mike Perry (-320) vs Mickey Gall (+260)

I can’t remember the last time that there have been so many unknowns for a fighter that is this heavy of a favorite. Without even getting into the fact that Perry will be solely cornered by his current girlfriend, it seems as though he’s left his home of Fusion X-Cel to pursue the girl of his dreams. He is currently located in Lubbock, Texas where there is little to no training. Who know who he is training with and if he managed to get in any good BJJ rolls because that is something he’s going to have to deal with if Gall is successful in getting him down. Gall is still quite young in his pro MMA career, but he has gained valuable experience on the big stage so far. By the looks of his Instagram he has been putting on some muscle too. That could be indicative of the fact that he wants to make this a clinch and grapple-heavy matchup to open the door for his BJJ to shine. Perry has decent takedown defense and we’ve seen him get out of some sticky situations on the ground. The size of Gall makes this interesting. On the feet, it should be a wipe-out in Perry’s favor, but even with that said he is pretty one-dimensional with his striking game. It’s nothing that’s going to blow your hair back and he hasn’t scored a knockout since September 2017 where he disposed of late-replacement Alex Reyes. I think the line is far too juiced here for a fighter like Perry. He is very predictable and as long as Gall doesn’t get KO’d here, he could grind Perry out with his size, strength, and BJJ skills. I wouldn’t even be surprised if we see Gall pull off a submission too.

PERRY: Pass

 

Sean Woodson (-440) vs Julian Erosa (+350)

7-0 Woodson comes into this contest against a 31-fight veteran. Stylistically this should be a very fun striking matchup between two lengthy dudes for this 145lb division. Erosa is back in the UFC after a quick stop in CageSport where he picked up a victory in the first round. Erosa has some interesting striking styles and can be a little loopy and wild at times. I think he is going to have his hands full here against Woodson who seems to have a very high ceiling with his talent. His range and impeccable striking defense allows him to land such dynamic strikes while taking minimal damage in return. However, Erosa will be the first striker he faces who is on the taller side compared to most of his past opponents. The only thing Woodson needs to worry about here is being sure that he is totally out of range when he sways backwards to evade strikes. Against opponents like Bochniak, it works flawlessly because he always he has such a huge size advantage. He will still have the size advantage here against Erosa, but will still need to be careful not to underestimate the amount of distance Erosa can cover. With that said, I think Woodson will pass this test with flying colors as well as possibly getting a stoppage win. I’m envisioning Erosa dipping his head while throwing a winging shot and a picture perfect knee coming up the middle for Woodson to land the KO blow. He is far too big of a favorite to play straight, but he is definitely with adding a cherry on top of your parlay.

WOODSON: Parlay worthy

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