Lock Worthy? UFC Fight Night 72 Edition

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In this article I will be breaking down the top 3 biggest favorites (per Several Bookmakers) and giving an assessment on whether they are Moneyline worthy, Parlay worthy, or a complete Pass. Though I may say a favorite is one of those first two options, my official bets may not reflect that. Alright, that’s pretty much it for the setup, let’s get into this.


Mariya Agapova (-340) vs Hannah Cifers (+310)

Most people will remember Agapova from her stint on the Contender’s Series where Tracy Cortez managed to clinch/grapple her way to victory against the superior striker in Agapova. Agapova’s line has gradually gotten steamed since the line has dropped as people have started to run the tape on her and see the potential that she carries. Her movement, range, and striking aggression is definitely something to be fond of, especially against and always-undersized Cifers. Cifers is a tough out, but it’s hard not to overlook the finishing potential of Agapova here. The +money under looks like a great bet, as well as Agapova ITD. It seems like Cifers best path to victory here is to clinch Agapova and keep her movement to a minimum. Cifers does have a pretty strong frame, but I think Agapova will be able to do enough to stay away from being tied up. If you’re stuck with just the ML, she still holds value as a parlay piece at the current line she is at.

AGAPOVA: Parlay worthy


Julia Avila (-605) vs Gina Mazany (+505)

Avila, in my opinion, is one of the top prospects at the 135lb division. Her aggression, punching power, and pressure is one of the top in the division. I’m not saying that if she gets a title shot after this that she would have a competitive fight against Nunes, but with a little more grooming she could definitely find herself in the top 5 of this weight class. With solid wins over Marion Reneau and Nicco Montano earlier in her career, it’s hard to believe that Mazany will pose any threat to Avila here. Her best shot is to grapple/clinch Avila as much as possible. I think the pressure, pace, and strength of Avila will render Mazany’s path to victory useless, especially after the 1st round. Mazany is just not talented enough to be in the UFC, but you need to credit her willingness to take this opponent as her first fight back on the big show. I expect Avila to go in there and mop the floor with Mazany en route to a 1st round stoppage.

AVILA: Parlay worthy


Merab Dvalishvili (-800) vs Gustavo Lopez (+635)

Dvalishvili brings every single aspect to the table when you talk about a guy you can trust your money with. The ONLY concern is that he does get hit a little too much, but his durability has stood tough until this point. He is the master of pressure, volume takedowns, and cardio. He is a machine, a perfect nickname as well. I’m not sure in what realm someone can be ready on 2-3 days notice to take on a guy like Merab. The cardio shape you’d have to be in alone is enough. Gustavo has some serious power in his hands, but outside of that this fight is a complete rag-dolling waiting to happen. Expect pressure right off the bat for Merab as well as Gustavo breaking by the 1.5 round mark. I wouldn’t be surprised at a 3rd round stoppage for Merab, either. There isn’t much value added with -800 in a parlay, but Merab is a guy you can count on almost everytime, especially in this circumstance. So go ahead, add this cherry on top of that parlay.

DVALISHVILI: Parlay worthy


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MMAOB Fight Morning Quick Card Breakdown Show with MikesMMAPicks – UFC Fight Night: Eye vs Calvillo

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MMAOB’s Nick Kalikas talks UFC Fight Night: Eye vs Calvillo on the Pushing the Odds radio show