Lock Worthy? UFC 250 Edition

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In this article I will be breaking down the top 3 biggest favorites (per 5Dimes) and giving an assessment on whether they are Moneyline worthy, Parlay worthy, or a complete Pass. Though I may say a favorite is one of those first two options, my official bets may not reflect that. Alright, that’s pretty much it for the setup, let’s get into this.

Cody Stamann (-250) vs Brian Kelleher (+210)

Kelleher is making a quick return to the octagon here after he finished Hunter Azure as a similarly-sized underdog. Without Hunter being as relentless for his takedowns as he normally is, Kelleher was able to clip him with a beautiful lead hook that flattened Hunter. This time around, he faces a fighter with way more UFC experience and a more refined striking game. Stamann uses kicks and punches very well to eventually set up his takedowns. He is a tank of a fighter and the fact that this fight is at 145, should only allow him to be bigger in this fight. I would feel much more comfortable with Stamann here than Azure due to the fact that Cody is much more well-rounded. He has a great chin as well, as evidence from his fight with Song Yadong. I’m not sure if I’m suffering PTSD from losing that Hunter bet, but Brian carries serious power in his hands and absolutely has that path to victory in this fight. I find it hard to believe that Cody will get caught in a guillotine here when shooting for a takedown, so he will just have to be weary of the power coming his way from Boom. Outside of that, I think Cody can win by being more active and mixing in his takedowns, where he should be able to ride this fight out from the top position for the majority of this fight.

STAMANN (-250): Parlay worthy

 

Sean O’Malley (-500) vs Eddie Wineland (+400)

The Suga Show finally made his triumphant return in January after a long battle with USADA for a number of things. He was fed a softball in his first fight back and was able to dispatch of Jose Quinonez with relative ease. This is a fight against a very tough vet who is quite one-dimensional. Wineland holds a lot of power, but his game-plan is quite obvious every time out. He wants to knock your head into the stands. O’Malley has been doing great work with The MMA Lab, but his bond with Tim Welch has been very beneficial for him. To have a solid MMA fighter be a coach and cater everything within a training camp specifically for him will help him immensely as he continues his MMA journey. Sean should have no problems keeping his distance with his kicks in this fight and then start to open up once he’s started to figure out the timing and tendencies of Eddie. The current line is a little nuts, definitely not worthy as a straight play. He’s more of a cherry on top of a parlay here or if you’re looking to boost the odds on that one play you’re eyeing but the odds just aren’t quite yet, Sean is your man here.

O’MALLEY (-500): Parlay worthy

 

Amanda Nunes (-600) vs Felicia Spencer (+450)

The consensus GWOAT is back in action here to defend her Featherweight championship. In steps the former Invicta Featherweight champion, Felicia Spencer. This is the first time Amanda will be fighting a grappler like Felicia since this crazy run that she has been on. Ronda can be seen as a grappler, but we know once she can’t get that judo throw she is a fish out of the water on the feet, hence Nunes finishing her in less than a minute. Felicia on the other hand, has great durability and a solid chin. She took Cyborg’s best shots and was still there. Nunes has done a very good job in keeping fights where she needs them to be successful, like the GDR fight where it wasn’t going the best for her on the feet and she was able to secure 8 takedowns in that fight to ensure victory. Here, I think she will attempt to keep it on the feet. Unfortunately for her, Spencer is quite persistent with her takedowns and she has some strength to her. If she can push Amanda against the cage and wear on her, she could make this a very long and tough fight. I don’t think that Amanda will go out there and starch Felicia right away, which is why my favorite bet for this fight would be the over 1.5 (roughly -185). With that said, I give Felicia a much better chance of winning this fight than the +450 suggests.

NUNES (-600): Pass

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UFC 250 Prop Betting Selections

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Uber Tales of the Tape for UFC 250