UFC on ESPN+ 27 Betting Breakdown: Joseph Benavidez vs. Deiveson Figueiredo


MMAOB staff writer Adam Martin takes a deeper look at the main event of UFC on ESPN+ 27, a five-round UFC vacant flyweight title bout between Joseph Benavidez and Deiveson Figueiredo. The event takes place on Saturday, February 29 at Chartway Arena in Norfolk, Virginia.

Joseph Benavidez (-130)

Benavidez (28-5) is one of the greatest MMA flyweights of all time. The 35-year-old American has been in the UFC since 2015 and is 15-3 overall in the Octagon. He has fought and defeated many of the best flyweights in the world, including Henry Cejudo, Jussier Formiga, and Ian McCall. His three losses in the UFC came against Demetrious Johnson twice and Sergio Pettis, with his two previous losses in the WEC to Dominick Cruz at bantamweight. Benavidez essentially played second-fiddle to Johnson for the role of the second-best flyweight in the UFC from 2012 to 2018. With Johnson now in ONE Championship and Cejudo having vacated the belt, Benavidez finally gets another chance to fight for the belt after seven years. Though he’s older now, he’s still one of the most well-rounded flyweights in the division, with a powerful striking attack to go along with effective grappling. Could this be the time Benavidez finally wins UFC gold? We will find out on Saturday night.

Deiveson Figueiredo (+110)

Figueiredo (17-1) is one of the top contenders in the UFC flyweight division. The 32-year-old Brazilian is 6-1 since making his Octagon debut in 2017 with notable wins over Tim Elliott and John Moraga and his lone loss against Formiga. Figueiredo is an extremely-dangerous flyweight who has won 14 fights by stoppage for a high finishing percentage relative to the rest of the division. He is a powerful striker with submission skills, making him able to finish the fight anywhere it goes. His takedown defense is the one thing he needs work on as his limited wrestling skills were exploited by Formiga. But provided he’s worked on those skills, he could very well win the belt this weekend.

Fight Breakdown: This should be a very competitive fight between two of the best flyweights in the world. Benavidez is incredibly well rounded and has very little flaws in his game, while Figueiredo looks better every time we see him. Ultimately, I believe this fight is going to come down to championship experience and the fact it’s a five-round fight favors Benavidez. He’s been the full five rounds multiple times in the past and I believe that experience will give him the edge he needs here. Figueiredo has never headlined a UFC card before while for Benavidez being in the main event is something he’s used to. Benavidez has been in these big fights before, and while he hasn’t come out on top, I think this could finally be his time to shin. I do believe Figueiredo will be dangerous early on, but if he’s not able to get an early stoppage, the later this fight goes the more it favors Benavidez. At the end of five rounds, my pick is Benavidez to edge out a close decision.

Prediction: Joseph Benavidez wins by decision

Written by Adam Martin.

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MMA Prediction Guru previews UFC on ESPN+ 27: Joseph Benavidez vs Deiveson Figueiredo