UFC 203: Miocic vs Overeem Date: September 10, 2016 Arena: Quicken Loans Arena City: Cleveland, OH The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is headed to Cleveland, OH for the first time in promotional history with UFC 203: Miocic vs Overeem. The stacked 13 fight card, which includes the debut of WWE superstar Phil “CM Punk” Brooks is set to kick off with preliminary action at 6:15pm ET on UFC Fight Pass, which will follow at 8pm ET on FOX Sports 1, culminating with the main card at 10pm ET only on Pay Per View. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Fights to AVOID betting are: Lightweight bout: Nik “The Carney” Lentz (-400) vs Michael McBride (+310) Gabe’s Thoughts: McBride got the call to replace Mairbek Taisumov on short notice, after Taisumov was forced to withdraw from the bout due to VISA issues. Along with his UFC debut, McBride will also be making his lightweight debut in this contest, as he has previously been competing in the welterweight division. He is an undefeated prospect and a threat to Lentz both on the feet and on the mat, though Lentz is the superior wrestler and is likely to outgrind the promotional newcomer while succesfully defending his submission attempts. “The Carney” showed some decline in his last Octagon outing against Danny Castillo, where he won a split decision in his return to the UFC’s 155-pound division. At the current odds, I see this fight as being a “dog or pass” situation, and I am ultimately going to opt to make a pass on the dog. Come Saturday night, I will be avoiding this lightweight match-up at the sportsbook and I would recommend you do the same. Gabe’s Call: Lentz by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Flyweight bout: Ian McCall (-125) vs Ray Borg (+105) Gabe’s Thoughts: McCall is undoubtedly the superior striker heading into this 125-pound contest, as well as the superior wrestler. Borg was the better submission game, but I think McCall’s defense is good enough to not get caught while in top position on the mat. I think this is McCall’s fight to lose, but I cannot trust him following his extended near two year long layoff. He’s been sidelined for far too long and has been plagued with injurues, but perhaps he will follow in the footsteps of fellow Southern Californian Dominic Cruz. Unless McCall’s skill-set had drastically declined, I don’t like Borg’s chances of scoring takedowns against him, which means I think he needs a submission to win. At these odds, I have to admit I see value in McCall, as I think he should be closer to a 2-to-1 favorite in this match-up. Usually I would jump at a play like that, but I just don’t have the confidence in McCall; not since he let me down against John Lineker in his last bout. He won the first round against the Brazilian, but after feeling his power in the second, he appeared afraid to engage and ended up losing the latter two rounds in a unanimous decision defeat. I can’t blame anybody for taking a shot on him, as I do think this is a good stylistic match-up for him, but for me, this is going to be a fight I avoid at the sportsbooks come Saturday night. Gabe’s Call: McCall by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
