UFC Fight Night 79 Date: November 28, 2015 Arena: Olympic Gymnastics Arena City: Seoul, South Korea The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Seoul, South Korea for the first time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 79: Henderson vs Masvidal. The event will feature 11 bouts in its entirety on UFC Fight Pass, starting with preliminary action at 5am ET and following with the main card at 8am ET. If interested in wagering on this parlay, or any bouts on this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here is my parlay: Welterweight bout: Dominic Waters (+500) vs Dong Hyun Kim (-700) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Kim outgrapples Waters for three-rounds of action in this co-main event welterwieght match-up and picks up a unanimous victory on the judges’ scorecards. I see him getting a takedown early in every round, never allowing Waters to get anything off. I expect this to be a 15 minute, one-sided affair in favor of the Korean in front of his fellow countrymen in Seoul. I think Kim is a justified heavy favorite at his current offering price of -700, however I think the value is with the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -145, as I think the line for that should be -220. Gabe’s Call: Kim by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Women’s Strawweight bout: Cortney Casey (-165) vs Seo Hee Ham (+145) Gabe’s Thoughts: I expect this to be a closely contested match-up that goes for all three rounds, where it will be left in the hands of the judges. I think there is some value in Ham at her current underdog tag of +145, however I think the safe move is to take the Over 2.5 rounds Total, as I think this fight hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision much more often than not. Rather than taking a shot with the dog, I am opting to play it safe and parlay the Over. Gabe’s Call: Ham by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Bantamweight bout: Fredy Serrano (-190) vs Yao Zhikui (+165) Gabe’s Thoughts: Both of these 125-pounders have heavy hands and like to throw bombs, so if it stays on the feet, it could be anybody’s fight when it hits the judges’ scorecards, though I do give an advantage to Serrano. I think this would be a competitive fight on the feet, however I expect Serrano to play it smart and use his superior wrestling to take Zhikui down and grind him out for three rounds for the unanimous nod. I give Serrano a slight advantage on the feet and a massive advantage on the mat. I think he should be a -210 betting favorite heading into this flyweight match-up, so I can’t blame anybody for parlaying him. However, I think the safer play here is the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -200, because I think there is the possibility of Serrano opting to strike for three rounds, in which case it would be a competitive fight and I could see a decision going to the crowd favorite, Zhikui. Gabe’s Call: Serrano by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Parlay: Waters/Kim Over 2.5 rounds (-145), Casey/Ham Over 2.5 rounds (-225) and Serrano/Zhikui Over 2.5 rounds (-200) at +266 for 2.5u to win 6.65u
