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Event: XMMA 1 (Jan. 30th)
Bet: Risking 0.5 units @ + 105 on Vick vs. Fiahlo UNDER 2.5 Rounds
Quick Thoughts:
Just one small play for half a unit for this event in a few hours as the line caught my eye, and so I looked into it more. Tape confirms that taking a small poke on this line is worth it for me. Let’s discuss.
Statistics:
The UNDER 2.5 rounds cashes at a rate of approximately 69% in their combined MMA careers, whereas the +105 indicates 49% probability. James Vick was knocked down seven times in his UFC career but managed to register four knockdowns of his own.
Stylistic Matchup:
Vick is the superior fighter, so he probably gets his hand raised here. Vick likely has a lot of success at range while keeping Andre Fialho at the end of his punches at Fiahlo is very hittable and, as a result, has been rocked multiple fights.
IF Fiahlo can get on the inside against Vick, like many UFC fighters who defeated him did (i.e., Dariush, Gaethje, Felder), he can cause fight-ending damage as Fiahlo packs power in his hands. In terms of Fiahlo closing the distance, he throws stiff leg kicks to have success limiting Vick’s mobility to have success landing on him.
